y2's Take - Julio Teheran

Julio Teheran is entering his 4th big league season with the Braves this year. In 2014, just about everything went right for him on his way to a great year, however in 2015 I feel we saw more of the real Teheran.  Many people are predicting a bounce back, while I'm projecting Teheran for even more regression. 

Here are some numbers to consider.  Over the last three seasons, BB%, K/BB ratio and Line Drive% ratio have all trended in the wrong direction for Tehrean.  While last year was abysmal compared to 2014, overall his first 3 seasons in the bigs are less than impressive (and that's including a good 2014).  He has a career K/9 of 7.70, average at best for a fantasy starter in most formats.  His walk rate is heading in the wrong direction and that's very concerning for someone that should be maintaining better control as he heads into the prime years of his career.  These things considered, I expect his WHIP to be high again and similar to last year.  Even if he improves, he would have to improve dramatically to get it back to his career average of 1.19, and I don't see that happening with his current career arc.

Wins are always tough to project, but the Braves should be a bad team this season.  Even if Teheran pitches well, run support will likely be an issue and everything would have to break right for him to pull off 13+ wins (which I think is unlikely).

The one positive you can say about Teheran is durability.  He's put up 185+ IP 3 years in a row.  However if the K/9 is going to be under 8 and the WHIP/ERA are going to be worse an average fantasy SP as I project, those innings are going to hurt your team more than help.

The stats say that he was a bit lucky in 2014 to have a good of a season as he did. He was probably a but unlucky to have as bad of a year as he did in 2015, but not by much.  He would need to do the following to be a good value at his current ADP:

• Lower his 2015 BB/9 by at least .75 to bring it under 2.50.
• Increase his 2015 K/9 from 7.67 to 8.50.
• Drop his 2015 HR/FB ratio from his mark of 13% down to 10%.

Are these things all possible, sure, however with the trajectory of his skills over the first three seasons, I'm not banking on it.  I would take him in a draft at the right price, but my ranking is quite off from his ADP.  He's being drafted in most leagues around the 160 mark while I have him sitting outside of my top 300.  My advice: stay away from Teheran.