If you've read my recent article on closers (here), then you've had a sneak peak into my thoughts on Aroldis Chapman. Chapman has been about as dominant as any pitcher could be over the last 4 seasons. He's accumulated no less than 33 saves each year and much more impressively has averaged an astounding 15.40 K/9. He has simply dominated NL batters, so how could I possibly be down on Chapman?
A little perspective, I'm only down on him compared to others projections and his ADP. Do I think he could still be a dominant closer... yes. But at the same time, I think there is a good amount of risk and uncertainty that comes with him this season. Here are a number of factors I took into account when I created my projections for Chapman:
Even factoring in all of these concerns, I still have him 8th on my big board of relief pitchers. That's a huge drop off however compared to everyone else's top 1-3 closer ranking. If he fell to me at the right spot, I would take him in a draft, but I think that's very unlikely knowing how the rest of the world views him. There are very likely other closers I'd take in his place.