y2's 10 Bold Predictions of 2016

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Originally posted to Flickr as "Stephen Strasburg") [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Bold predictions are something fun that most sites do at this time of year.  It's only a few weeks before the start of the season and we've seen a reasonable amount of spring training already.  I've published my projections and rankings, tweaked a few million times, and finally have settled on what I'm using for all of my upcoming drafts.  While projections themselves are somewhat conservative by nature, here are my 10 bold projections for 2016.  Just for clarity, while these are bold, I also try to keep them realistic, not ridiculous like some others may do.

1. Josh Reddick finishes as a top 20 fantasy outfielder.  ADP data currently has him being drafted as the 47th outfielder.  He's been good for some time, but hasn't had many opportunities to put everything together.  I see him as a 5 tool player and if things break right, he will provide huge ROI for those that draft him.
   
   
2. Dallas Keuchel finishes top 3 in AL Cy Young voting. I'm not sure he wins it again, but I wouldn't be shocked if he did.  I've already written at length here why I think he has a legit change for a repeat.
   
   
3. Cole Hamels will disappoint everyone that drafts him. He has a lot more name recognition at this point of his career than anything else.  He's extremely durable I will give him that, but if he pitches 200 innings with an ERA of 3.60+  and a WHIP of 1.17+; that's not nearly enough value considering where he's being drafted.
   
   
4. Stephen Strasburg will lead the NL in strikeouts.One of the most hyped prospects arguably ever, Strasburg is now entering his 7th season in the majors.  He's overcome a number of injuries early in his career and is seemingly healthy coming into 2016.  His second 1/2 of 2015 was excellent posting a 92/8 K/BB ratio post all star break.  If he can get a full season under his belt, I don't even think this is that bold of a prediction.
   
   
5. Aroldis Chapman fails to exceed 20 saves. With a 30 game suspension, Chapman is scheduled to miss about 18% of the season.  If you pro-rate that to his average saves per season (35) and he should tentatively get around 28 saves in a normal year. There are a number of other factors at play though.  The yanks look like a boom or bust team to me and I'm not projecting them for a ton of save opportunities.  In addition to other elite arms in the pen that can easily close games so Chapman doesn't have to pitch back to back days. I also think it's possible that his arm simply falls off.  Seriously, how many 100+ mph pitches can one guy throw?
   
   
6. Kevin Pillar scores 100+ runs. Pillar received a endorsement from manager John Gibbons last week he will be batting lead-off.  Now, for him to keep that spot he's going to have to improve his OBP, but he has been for the last few years and is trending in the right direction.  With the big 4 bats behind him, this might not be too bold.
   
   
7. Corey Seager fails to reach 20 HR's, 6 SB's, and bats under .265. Corey Seager's ADP is rising and people love the potential of this young stud.  He's still raw, and will likely go through growing pains in 2016.  Anyone that drafts him even close to his current ADP will be disappointed.
   
   
8. Starling Marte posts 20 HR's, 30 SB's, and finishes top 5 in NL MVP voting. A number of things have to go right for this one to happen, but all are realistic as Marte comes into his prime.  Next year we will be talking about a new "best" outfielder in Pittsburgh.
   
   
9. Jonathan Papelbon leads the NL in saves. With the Harper drama behind him, he's on a team that should win a high number of games in a bad division.  He's locked into a contract that essentially guarantees he's the closer all season.  While he's older, his skills are still solid enough that he can close out a high % of the chances he's given.


10. Carlos Rodon is utterly terrible in 2016. Rodon showed some promise in 2015 and just about everyone is high on him in 2016.  I'm projecting him for an ERA over 4.00 as well as a WHIP over 1.35.  He won't even be a serviceable starter in deeper leagues.
    

I understand some of these are bolder than others and a lot of people will disagree with most of them.  That's the fun in bold predictions though.  I already have a reminder on my calendar for June and September to check in at the 1/2 way point and end of the year to see how I did.  I'm pretty sure I'll go 10 for 10 though.

Questions, comments or concerns, please contact me here or on twitter @y2trips