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Rankings and Projections - Round Three

2/7/2016

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I just completed my third, and hopefully last, major update to my rankings and projections for the preseason (found here).

Notable changes include:
  • I again adjusted the $$ allocation between pitchers and hitters.  Even after recently changing to a 67/33 formula, most pitchers weren't high enough on my overall board.  I'm now using a 66/34 split and am reasonably confident i will be sticking with this.  Even with all of these adjustments, the changes are very small, however they are significant enough to help me feel better about my top 300.
  • Deep dive into a subset of players where my rankings were glaringly off from ADP rankings.  If you've read my book, I talk about Relative Draft Value, a metric I use to compare my rankings against others and then look for the greatest variances.  I went through this exercise and then re-evaluated my rankings on a number of players, simply to ensure I wasn't missing something.  In some instances i adjusted my projections while others stayed the same.  Some notable dramatic changes for the better were: Kyle Schwarber (I've written about him plenty already), Travis d'Arnaud, Marcus Stroman, Corey Seager and Raisel Iglesias.  Others that I was a bit too optimistic on and have pulled back on include: Melky Cabrera, Evan Gattis, DJ LeMahieu, Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols.  There were a number of other changes, however these included some of the more dramatic adjustments.

As spring training commences and player news breaks, I will continue to update these rankings.  Going forward though, most changes will be mostly minimal and will usually be accompanied by blog posts.
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