Having completed my first NFBC Online Championship draft just 7 days ago, I felt a bit better going into this one.  Not that I wasn’t prepared the first time, but just seeing how things played out the first time was a bit different than what I expected.  Overall I was pleased with my first team, but I also think with 1 draft under my belt; I should be even better prepped to draft this time around.

In the first draft I pulled the #1 overall pick, which was a nice luxury.  This time I drafted out of the #12 slot.  This was also one of my preferred slots, so I was very happy when the draft order was released.  When you draft from either of the ends, I feel you actually have some control in beginning runs with back to back picks.  It doesn’t always work out, but it can at times. If/when it does, it’s to your advantage.  I also feel this year that there is a drop-off after the top 14 guys on the board.  If I have the 11th or 12th pick, it guarantees me that I end up with 2 guys in my top tier; also a nice luxury.  All of that said, let’s see how my team turned out:

• Miguel Cabrera (Round 1, pick 12) and Kris Bryant (Round 2, Pick 13)
• David Price (Round 3, pick 36) and Dallas Keuchel (Round 4, pick 37)
• Lorenzo Cain (Round 5, pick 60) and Yasiel Puig (Round 6, pick 61)
• Kyle Seager (Round 7, pick 84) and Mark Melancon (Round 8, pick 85)
• Francisco Liriano (Round 9, pick 108) and Hector Rondon (Round 10, pick 109)
• David Ortiz (Round 11, pick 132) and Hisashi Iwakuma (Round 12, pick 133)
• Santiago Casilla (Round 13, pick 156) and Jeff Samardzija (Round 14, pick 157)
• Brandon Crawford (Round 15, pick 180) and DJ LeMahieu (Round 16, pick 181)
• Scott Kazmir (Round 17, pick 204) and Kevin Pillar (Round 18, pick 205)
• Ben Zobrist (Round 19, pick 228) and Carlos Santana (Round 20, pick 229)
• Francisco Cervelli (Round 21, pick 252) and Clay Buchholz (Round 22, pick 253)
• Melky Cabrera (Round 23, pick 276) and Howie Kendrick (Round 24, pick 277)
• Jarrod Dyson (Round 25, pick 300) and A.J. Pierzynski (Round 26, pick 301)
• Jorge Soler (Round 27, pick 324) and Rich Hill (Round 28, pick 325)
• Jhonny Peralta (Round 29, pick 348) and Nori Aoki (Round 30, pick 349)

Initial thoughts: At first glance, I really liked the way this team shook out.  In the early rounds and even through the middle rounds I didn’t really miss out on many guys I wanted.  A few times I can remember someone leaving my queue just before it was my pick, but not as much as one would expect for an expert draft of this level.

Greatest strengths: Overall I think my pitching is very strong.  More-so from a starting pitching perspective, but I like my 3 closers as well.  I knew my first 2 picks would be bats and that essentially forced me to go SP, SP in the 3rd and 4th rounds.  I had a small group of pitchers I really hoped fell to me and while I would have loved Strasburg and Price, I was very pleased to get Price and Keuchel.  Then to fill out the rest of my starters with Liriano, Iwakuma, Samardzija, and Kazmir; I felt was tremendous value in the rounds I was able to get them in.  I might not win K’s, but I should have a competitive chance to win ERA and WHIP.  These guys are on good MLB teams for the most part, and while wins is a volatile stat, I think I should be in good position for a lot of them.

I also like the three closers I was able to snag.  Melancon is a lock to have the job all year and had a tremendous track record.  While job security isn’t quite as safe for Rondon and Casilla, they have enough to allow me to sleep at night.  All 3 are on good teams that should have an opportunity for a lot of saves; their ratios should be good as well.  Overall, I should be able to compete at a very high level in all 5 pitching categories

From a batting perspective, I think I’m very strong in AVG and should be reasonable strong in Runs.  I have a number of guys that should be hitting in the 1 or 2 hole for their respective teams and while that wasn’t a goal, it was nice for a lot of them to fall to me later in the draft. 

Greatest weaknesses: Power and speed.  Those are two pretty big weaknesses at first glance, but let’s look a bit deeper.  While I think I’m weaker from a HR and SB perspective, I don’t think it’s to the point where I won’t be competitive.  I should have a good chance to finish in the middle of the pack in both categories and I’m fine with that so long as my strengths come through.  I also think that if some of my bench guys work out, this may not be as glaring of a hole as it seems.

Best Values: There were a few times in the draft I found myself thinking “Please don’t take this guy”.  I thought Lorenzo Cain at the end of the 5th and Kyle Seager at the end of the 7th were probably the two best early round values.  I’d argue both should have easily gone a round earlier based on their projected value.  I was also really close to taking Pillar in the 16th, so when I saw him fall another 24 picks, I was really excited to take him.

Most questionable picks: Puig is risky as my 6th round pick.  I could have gone Heyward and been a bit safer, but I just think the skills upside for Puig was too great to pass on.  Is there a lot more downside… absolutely.  But he was the only guy I saw there that could potentially return 1st or 2nd round value.  David Ortiz is old.  However falling to the 11th round really felt like a steal.  I think playing time might be the biggest concern for him, but he tries to hit a HR every single plate appearance and I don’t see him dropping off completely in his farewell tour.

Guys I missed out on: Luckily this isn’t a long list.  While I could name 100 guys I like and wish I could have had, there were only a few that stood out where by not getting them, I had to settle for a lesser pick at the time. I really would have liked Freeman in the 7th and he went 1 pick before I took Seager.  I like Seager, but getting both at the 7/8 turn would have been tremendous.  With my Liriano pick, I had 5 other SP’s queued up (Stroman, Ross, Wacha, Martinez, Matz) and would have been happier with any of them.  Though having Price and Keuchel already, this wasn’t as big of a miss to me. Lastly, I wanted a better 3rd closer than Casilla, someone with a better grip on the job.  I was targeting Papelbon, K-Rod, or even McGee for his elite skills.  All of them went and Casilla was the best available left for a 3rd closer.

Conclusion: I feel like I have a lot more strengths than weaknesses, and that’s a good feeling.  When the draft was over, I immediately though: “This was a team that had a chance to win the league”.  I don’t feel as though my weaknesses are insurmountable, but I will need to work on them through the season. It should be a very fun season with 2 NFBC leagues now complete and I expect to be competitive in both.

Again, special thanks to Bob Burlone who drafted this team with me as well as the first team. Anyone interested in the results of our first draft, they can be found here.

Questions, comments or concerns: leave a message on here or connect with me directly on Twitter @y2trips.

Every year, I try to do at least 1 or 2 Yahoo Pro leagues.  They are quite popular and I'm a big fan of their roto standard rules; specifically:

• 1400 IP limit: This allows for a reasonable amount of pitching strategy to be made.  It also prevents teams from continually streaming to accumulate wins and K's.  It forces teams to invest in pitching and really discourages punting categories
  
  
• Daily roster moves - Big advantage to the owners that pay attention to their teams daily and invests the time to succeed.

For reference, I had the 12th pick overall.  Now, lets take a look at my team starting with the batters:

While I'm admittedly light on power, I should be able to be middle of the pack in HR's and RBI's.  I should also be able to be strong from a runs, SB, and AVG perspective.  I have a number of players that contribute both in the HR and SB categories and while the numbers aren't gaudy for many players, the accumulations are fine.

Now lets look at pitching:

Like a lot of my other teams this season, I really wanted a strong pitching staff, even more-so with an IP limit.  I should have a good chance to win all pitching categories with the aces I was able to accumulate with Price, Greinke, and Carrasco.  This year more than seasons past, it feels like there is a premium on pitching and I was happy to get a good amount of it early in the draft.

​Overall very happy with this team and looking at the team projections both on yahoo and FantasyPros, i should dominate.  Granted all projections should be taken with a grain of salt, i was very happy with this team going of of my own projections alone.

There's not a formula to build the perfect team and every draft is unique, but for others drafting Yahoo Pro League teams, I hope this snapshot is helpful to you.

Feel free to leave a comment or question, and i'll get back to you.

Bold predictions are something fun that most sites do at this time of year.  It's only a few weeks before the start of the season and we've seen a reasonable amount of spring training already.  I've published my projections and rankings, tweaked a few million times, and finally have settled on what I'm using for all of my upcoming drafts.  While projections themselves are somewhat conservative by nature, here are my 10 bold projections for 2016.  Just for clarity, while these are bold, I also try to keep them realistic, not ridiculous like some others may do.

1. Josh Reddick finishes as a top 20 fantasy outfielder.  ADP data currently has him being drafted as the 47th outfielder.  He's been good for some time, but hasn't had many opportunities to put everything together.  I see him as a 5 tool player and if things break right, he will provide huge ROI for those that draft him.
   
   
2. Dallas Keuchel finishes top 3 in AL Cy Young voting. I'm not sure he wins it again, but I wouldn't be shocked if he did.  I've already written at length here why I think he has a legit change for a repeat.
   
   
3. Cole Hamels will disappoint everyone that drafts him. He has a lot more name recognition at this point of his career than anything else.  He's extremely durable I will give him that, but if he pitches 200 innings with an ERA of 3.60+  and a WHIP of 1.17+; that's not nearly enough value considering where he's being drafted.
   
   
4. Stephen Strasburg will lead the NL in strikeouts.One of the most hyped prospects arguably ever, Strasburg is now entering his 7th season in the majors.  He's overcome a number of injuries early in his career and is seemingly healthy coming into 2016.  His second 1/2 of 2015 was excellent posting a 92/8 K/BB ratio post all star break.  If he can get a full season under his belt, I don't even think this is that bold of a prediction.
   
   
5. Aroldis Chapman fails to exceed 20 saves. With a 30 game suspension, Chapman is scheduled to miss about 18% of the season.  If you pro-rate that to his average saves per season (35) and he should tentatively get around 28 saves in a normal year. There are a number of other factors at play though.  The yanks look like a boom or bust team to me and I'm not projecting them for a ton of save opportunities.  In addition to other elite arms in the pen that can easily close games so Chapman doesn't have to pitch back to back days. I also think it's possible that his arm simply falls off.  Seriously, how many 100+ mph pitches can one guy throw?
   
   
6. Kevin Pillar scores 100+ runs. Pillar received a endorsement from manager John Gibbons last week he will be batting lead-off.  Now, for him to keep that spot he's going to have to improve his OBP, but he has been for the last few years and is trending in the right direction.  With the big 4 bats behind him, this might not be too bold.
   
   
7. Corey Seager fails to reach 20 HR's, 6 SB's, and bats under .265. Corey Seager's ADP is rising and people love the potential of this young stud.  He's still raw, and will likely go through growing pains in 2016.  Anyone that drafts him even close to his current ADP will be disappointed.
   
   
8. Starling Marte posts 20 HR's, 30 SB's, and finishes top 5 in NL MVP voting. A number of things have to go right for this one to happen, but all are realistic as Marte comes into his prime.  Next year we will be talking about a new "best" outfielder in Pittsburgh.
   
   
9. Jonathan Papelbon leads the NL in saves. With the Harper drama behind him, he's on a team that should win a high number of games in a bad division.  He's locked into a contract that essentially guarantees he's the closer all season.  While he's older, his skills are still solid enough that he can close out a high % of the chances he's given.


10. Carlos Rodon is utterly terrible in 2016. Rodon showed some promise in 2015 and just about everyone is high on him in 2016.  I'm projecting him for an ERA over 4.00 as well as a WHIP over 1.35.  He won't even be a serviceable starter in deeper leagues.
    

I understand some of these are bolder than others and a lot of people will disagree with most of them.  That's the fun in bold predictions though.  I already have a reminder on my calendar for June and September to check in at the 1/2 way point and end of the year to see how I did.  I'm pretty sure I'll go 10 for 10 though.

Questions, comments or concerns, please contact me here or on twitter @y2trips

The National Fantasy Baseball Championships drafts are arguably the most competitive high stakes season long drafts out there.  With top prizes over $125,000, most people playing in these leagues are seasoned and very much know what they are doing.  To get more information on what the NFBC is all about, you can go here for a full overview. 

Some details about this specific NFBC league: It is the Rotowire Online Championship 12 team mixed roto.  It is a snake draft and there are 30 roster spots per team.

When the league filled and the draft spots were allocated, I was very excited to see that I had the #1 overall pick. I was hoping to pick close to either end of the draft, and really like getting back to back picks.  In that spot, I feel you have the ability to set the tone in different rounds and if you're fortunate, even kick off some runs without being stuck in the middle of them. But enough about strategy, onto the picks:

• Mike Trout (Round 1, pick 1): I thought about Goldy for about 2 seconds thinking I could get a number of different other outfielders later, but I have Trout projected to return the most value, and really am only concerned with max value early in drafts.
  
  
• Starling Marte (Round 2, pick 24): After making the first pick, it feels like an eternity waiting for the next 2 picks, especially watching a ton of talent come off the board.  Doing a million mock drafts already this year, I had a good idea who I though could fall to me at 24/25. In a perfect world, I wanted one ace and another top tier bat in this spot and I was lucky to get them. While I would have rather had a non-OF to fill another position, Marte was the best bat here. I project him to have 20 HR and 30 SB this year so he's a 5-tool player that fills all catrgories.
  
  
• Madison Bumgarner (Round 3, pick 25): Sale was also here so I had my choice of 2 aces I was hoping would fall to me.  While Sale has a better K-rate, I think Madbum is just overall a bit safer.  He'll still strikeout 200+, and in a good park in the NL was my preferred option.
  
  
• Troy Tulowitski (Round 4, pick 48): While I'm fine with who I picked at the 4/5 turn, they are probably the 2 picks in the whole draft I'm least happy with.  I really wanted to get a second ace with one of these 2 picks to backup madbum, but all of my targets were taken within the last 22 picks.  Being flexible with strategy, I took who I thought the next best two bats were... somewhat.  I could have gone OF/OF here and gotten a bit more value, but chose to leave myself a bit of roster flexibility for later.  The overall values were close enough that I was comfortable with this. Even projecting Tulo to miss a bit of time, he would still return excellent value in the games he plays as he always does in his career.
  
  
• Adam Jones (Round 5, pick 49): This was a boring pick.  I had Jones projected as my 31st best player available so getting him at 49 was a great value, however Upton was also still there and I strongly considered him.  I have Upton projected to provide slightly less value, but I do think has more upside.  I stuck with my projections and took Jones.  3 OF out of my first 5 picks was not ideal or the plan, but they are all studs and should provide the most value to my team.
  
  
• Johnny Cueto (Round 6, pick 72) and Sonny Gray (Round 7, pick 73): At the 6/7 turn, I was REALLY hoping two pitchers would be there that I was comfortable with as my SP 2 and 3.  Missing out on a second ace was not the plan, but I was quite happy to get Gray and Cueto. Had they not been here I would have also considered Salazar and Wainwright, but I did have them a reasonable amount lower in my ranks.  I felt very lucky these two guys fell here.

• Mark Melancon (Round 8, pick 96) and Zach Britton (Round 9, pick 97): Closers are always a debated position.  Some like the elite ones while others punt closers all together. I'd rather invest early and get guys that have great skills as well as job security.  Since my last 2 picks, a good number of closers went off the board and only 3 were left in my second tier.  I felt it was a must to get 2 good ones here and then hopefully force other managers to continue the run of closers; Which did happen a bit.
  
  
• Ian Kinsler (Round 10, pick 120): I thought about Kinsler at the 8/9 turn so was thrilled to take him here.  Hitting at the top of the DET lineup should have 100 run opportunity as well as 10 HR/10 SB potential.
  
  
• Jonathan Papelbon (Round 11, pick 121): He was the last closer on my list before a big drop off in tier.  While he's a bit older now, his skills are still solid and his contract essentially guarantees him the job all year.  Very happy I have 3 closers that I likely do not need to think about most of the year.
  
  
• Matt Duffy (Round 12, Pick 144): I love Duffy and have him in my top 80 overall.  Getting him at 144 was a steal.  You can read all about my love for Duffy here.
  
  
• Jeff Samardzija (Round 13, pick 145): Pitchers were going off the board quickly and there were only a couple left that I would have been comfortable with as a 4th starter.  I debated between Shark and Iwakuma.  I went with Shark for the higher K potential.
  
  
• Hisashi Iwakima (Round 14, pick 168): Considering I was thinking of taking him 2s picks ago, I was really happy to see Iwakima fall to the 14th round.  He's looked healthy this spring and if he pitches close to a full season, this should prove to be a great pick.
  
  
• Gerardo Parra (Round 15, pick 169): I love the move to COL for Parra.  He is a 5 tool player that should benefit from Coors and provide HR and SB upside.
  
  
• Josh Harrison (Round 16, pick 192) and Ben Zobrist (Round 17, pick 193): Harrison and Zobrist at the 16/17 turn I liked for a few reasons.  Both should be leading off for great hitting lineups and have tons of run potential.  The both qualify for multiple positions including 2B, 3B, and OF and provide flexibility.  I have them much higher in my projected ranks and by a good margin.  Everything to love about these 2 picks.
  
  
•  Josh Reddick (Round 18, pick 216): I could make the argument that Reddick is a solid #3 outfielder so having him as my #5 is wonderful.  Here I detail why I think he's in line to be a top 100 player.
  
  
• Dustin Pedroia (Round 19, pick 217): Not sure I would call Pedrioa a bad pick, but maybe a poor investment.  I say that because I already had three potential 2B at this point in Kinsler, Harrison, and Zobrist.  The only place to play Pedroia would be at Utility.  That's fine with me, but wasn't the plan at all. He was the guy on my board that I felt had the most value left so he fell to my team
  
  
• Derek Norris (Round 20, pick 240) and Nick Hundley (Round 21, pick 241): At some point I needed to pull the trigger on catchers.  I hate reaching for a catcher early and leaving value on the table for other possible players that would better help my team, but in the 20th/21st rounds it felt like the right time.  The greatest weakness my team had was power so I targeted the two that I felt had the most HR upside at this point in the draft.  Was actually pleased and thought I would have had worse options at this point.
  
  
• Mitch Moreland (Round 22, pick 264): Crazy to believe I got my first baseman in round 22.  There were many points in the draft where I considered other players, things just didn't fall my way. Moreland has a full time job with decent power and average.  Clearly my biggest weakness, but one I can accept.  Knowing this, I also tried to address with later picks.
  
  
• Matt Holliday (Round 23, pick 265): Holliday is older but coming into the year healthy and will be playing 1B for the majority of the season.  As soon as he qualifies, if he's 85% of old Holliday, he may surpass Moreland for 1B on my team. 
  
  
• Marco Estrada (Round 24, pick 288) and Clay Buchholz (Round 25, pick 289): I only had 5 SP's and needed at least one more starters to fill out my rotation.  Talent was getting thin at this point to I took a shot at the top 2 guys left on my board.  If either of them figures things out, this should be fine to complete my already strong staff.
  
  
• Jorge Soler (Round 26, pick 312): Just amazing value outside of the top 300.  I get he doesn't have a job, but he's one team injury away from a full time high upside job.
  
  
• Jarrod Dyson (Round 27, pick 313): Analyzing my team, speed was my greatest weakness so I targeted Dyson as the best option left on the board for speed.
  
  
• Travis Shaw (Round 28, pick 336): Total upside pick.  He's crushing spring and if none of my shaky 1B options work out, a flyer on him could be a home run late in the draft.
  
  
• Pablo Sandoval (Round 29, pick 337): He can't possibly be as bad a last year, right? This late in the draft, worth a flyer.
  
  
• Jose Iglesias (Round 30, pick 360): Mr. irrelevant.  I didn't have a backup for tulo and options were thin.  Iglesias has always been a great hitter when healthy with .300+ AVG upside. Hopefully he's not needed, but I'm sure he will be.

All things considered, I really liked the draft.  I have a great chance to dominate Runs, Average, Saves, WHIP, and ERA.  I have room to improve with K's, HR's and SB's but I don't think I'm terrible in those categories by any stretch.    

Going by my auction values, I drafted $328 in value for my 23 starters.  If an average team would theoretically be 260, this basically means I killed it!  I have another NFBC draft on 3/31 and am already looking forward to it.

Special thanks to Bob Burlone who drafted this team with me and is also looking forward to our $125,000 prize :)

I know Ive been a but quiet lately as I finish up the last few days of draft prep.  Most of my research is completed and I'm excited to start drafting tomorrow.  I have a total of 5 drafts planned this year:

• NFBC Rotowire Online Championship #1 - 03/23/2016
  
• NFBC Rotowire Online Championship #2 - 03/30/2016
  
• Home League Draft - 04/01/2016
  
• Yahoo Pro League #1 - TBD
  
• Yahoo Pro League #2 - TBD
  

This will be my first year tackling the NFBC leagues and I'm looking forward to the challenge.  I've done a tremendous amount of research combing through the rules with a fine tooth comb as well as looking at previous years results to get a good gauge of what it takes to win.  While there are still some unknowns about the league, I should be able to pick those up in the first few weeks.

I've played in and won a number of Yahoo Pro leagues already so there isn't much new there.  I like them because they allow for daily moves and involve a lot of roster management.  I don't like that the rosters are so shallow, but it's workable. 

My home league is a 10 team keeper league, however rosters are very deep and it plays more similar to a 12-14 team league.

Once all of my drafts are completed, I'll put a high level recap together with the results.  I've done hundreds of mocks already (mostly for fun) and put in countless hours of research into my projections.  A lot of the guys I'll be targeting are guys that I've written about already and likely will have a number of them across all leagues.

If anyone has any last minute questions for me, feel free to reach out and good like to you in your leagues.

ADP (Average Draft Position) is a metric that most fantasy baseball players use while researching as well as while drafting.  ADP refers to the average overall pick that a player is being selected in drafts.  For example, if I took three draft results and saw that Bryce Harper was drafted 1st, 2nd, and 3rd overall respectively, his ADP for these 3 drafts would be 2nd overall.  It's a relatively easy concept to understand.  That said, too many people use ADP incorrectly and to their detriment.

While ADP is a nice indicator where a player is being drafted on average, there are problems with how people use it.  Here are a couple common ADP use cases I feel are flawed, but also how to use them more correctly:

While in a draft, using ADP as a firm gauge for player selection.

Not all fantasy baseball players are created equal; meaning, we all differ in how we do research, and how much research we put in. Many casual fantasy baseball players do little prep and rely heavily on ADP data during their live draft.  That's fine for a casual player who might not take things too seriously, however if you are doing this, it may be difficult to get players you want at certain points in the draft.

Example: player A has an ADP of 220 overall.  To get to that 220 ADP, hundreds of drafts already took place to calculate this ADP, and in those drafts, player A wasn't selected at spot 220 each time.  He likely went 160 or lower in some drafts and 280 or higher in others.  If you plan on sticking very close to the actual ADP numbers, there are likely going to be players you miss out on.  If you really want player A, it may make sense to reach a bit earlier than what their ADP indicates to ensure you acquire them.

At the same token, you don't want to reach too early in drafts and drastically overpay for someone either. If someone has an ADP of 80, selecting them in the second round isn't a wise choice.  Earlier in drafts there will naturally be less variance in players ADP numbers.  However as the rounds go on and the talent pool gets thinner, one can make an argument for drafting a number of similar players in the middle to later rounds.

Because every draft is unique, there isn't a magic formula that works for all cases.  Rather than simply relying on ADP data for your draft guide, I would strongly recommend that you do your own research, form your own rankings and opinions.  I also understand that's a lot of work and not for everybody.  If you are going to rely on ADP data during your draft as a guide; when in doubt, I would suggest reaching for a player earlier than ADP indicates.  The alternative is waiting too long, missing out, and regretting the decision.

Using ADP data to create your projections and rankings.

For those more involved (like myself), creating your own projection and rankings can be a very fun and rewarding experience. In addition, the research that goes along with that is the best way in my opinion to fully prepare for a draft.  Now, when creating your own rankings, it's natural to look at your data and compare it to ADP data to get a gauge of where the greatest variances are. If you happened to miss some player news and are way off on someone, looking at the ADP data can be an effective way to catch that type of mistake. 
It can also impact your own rankings negatively.  It's just as easy to assume that you're wrong when comparing your rankings to ADP.  If everyone else has player B ranked at 100 overall and I have him ranked at 55, how could I possibly be right compared to the rest of the world??  This is an easy trap to fall into.  Here's how I try to approach using ADP data when I'm creating my rankings:

1. Looking at a pool of players, research each player, create statistical projections accordingly.
2. Once done, compare my rankings against ADP to find great anomalies.
3. Do additional research to see if my logic was flawed when projecting this subset of players, however don't adjust unless I feel I made a mistake and an adjustment is needed, trying to stay as objective as possible.

This is really high level and there's more than goes into it, but it's an easy way to make my point. By using this method, I try to give myself a safety blanket in case I am grossly off with a projection of a player.  ADP trends help to catch that.  At the same time, I try not to get sucked into the vortex of believing that ADP data has to be more accurate than I am.

If you do in-depth research and are confident in your projection, it's perfectly fine to differ from ADP, even by a lot.  It's also ok for everyone else to be wrong.

One final thing to keep in mind: If you always stick to ADP data, you're sticking to averages and will draft an average team.  Average teams usually don't win.

Earlier this week, I completed my last batch of positional rankings write-ups for 2016.  Here's a one-stop-shop to check out all of them for your convenience:

• Catcher
  
• First Base
  
• Second Base
  
• Third Base
  
• Shortstop
  
• Outfield
  
• Designated Hitter
  
• Starting Pitchers
  
• Relief Pitchers
  

You can go here to check out the entire projections and rankings in spreadsheet format.

If anyone has any questions, please feel free to leave a comment here or tweet at me @y2trips

Spring training is now in full effect.  Each day that passes, we have more news about player progress and occasionally injuries.  Here are this week’s key updates you need to be aware of if you're drafting in the next few days:

Freddie Freeman: Two days ago, Freeman left his spring training game with what was reported as “wrist discomfort”.  In 2015 Freeman missed 44 games due to a right wrist injury and many feared the worst when this news broke.

It has since been reported that the issue was more in his hand and he “feels good”, just a couple of days later.  He returned to the lineup today and while he was 0-3, it was encouraging to see him back out there so quickly.  I don't have a tremendous amount of concern, but would keep an eye on his performance through the upcoming week.

Lance McCullers: In a less encouraging report, Lance McCullers reported shoulder soreness earlier this week and was shut down.  Reports are that he had an MRI and it came back clean, however a timetable has not been set for his return. 

If you've already drafted and have McCullers, this isn't the news you want to hear.  He's someone I was high on heading into the year and was expecting to take another step forward in the Astros rotation.  Now, it's possible he'll be fine. When talking about pitching injuries, I'd rather hear shoulder as opposed to elbow, but neither are exactly comforting.  I think best case scenario: he sits out the rest of spring training, even missed 1-2 starts in April, but gets back to 100% and is able to pitch to the level we were hoping to see in 2016.  If I haven’t drafted yet though, I might think about a similar safer option rather than McCullers unless the price is right.

Carter Capps: Capps had Tommy John surgery Tuesday.  Many had high hopes for this young flamethrower, but that will have to wait 12-18 months. 

From a fantasy perspective A.J. Ramos receives the greatest impact.  With Capps out for the year, Ramos even more solidified his role as the Marlins closer.  With some speculation that there may have been a dual over the job, both were being drafted near the bottom of the relief pitcher list.  I have bumped Ramos up a good amount to the middle tier of relievers and think he is a viable option now with a lot more job security.

Aaron Altherr: Altheer is essentially out for the season after having wrist surgery. He likely wouldn't have been drafted in shallower leagues. However in keeper, dynasty and deeper leagues, he was a prospect many were looking forward to grabbing this season.

His replacement isn't etched in stone yet, however whoever it is, I wouldn't expect a huge statistical impact.  I think it's possible they sign someone to fill the role (like Marlon Byrd), but it's only speculation. 

Jarrod Parker: Parker likely wasn't going to be drafted in most formats, similar to Altheer.  I'm mentioning Parker mostly out of sheer empathy. 

It was reported yesterday that Parker re-broke the same elbow that he broke last May, just 12 pitches into spring training.  He's also had Tommy John surgery twice already in his short career.  As a pure baseball fan, I truly hope he is able to get through this and have a chance to prove himself again.  He has shown potential greatness when he’s been on the field and it would be amazing if he's able to come back from this yet again.

Rounding out my positional breakdown articles, I do have a special place in my heart for relievers.  A few weeks ago, I posted this article talking about how and why I felt they are under-rated too often. That said, I've been looking to do this closer breakdown for quite some time.

1. Wade Davis (Auction $17): Davis has been flat-out dominant for years now.  With the Greg Holland injury last season, he got his first chance at a closer job and he took full advantage of the opportunity.  he doesn't have quite the elite K/9 as a few others, but his ERA/WHIP upside makes up for it.
2. Kenley Jansen (Auction $17): He's #1a right there with Davis.  His difference is a better K/9 upside but not quite as elite in ERA and WHIP. 
3. Craig Kimbrel (Auction $16): Kimbrel is #1b in this group of three. Even better K/9 than Jansen and on a new team that should have more save opportunities than the Braves.
   
   I'd be absolutely happy with any of these three and feel these are probably the only three that are absolute locks for excellent return on investment at the closer position.  It’s a small top tier, but if possible, I want one of them on all of my teams.
   
   
4. Mark Melancon (Auction $14): Melancon has been solid for years.  He's been the Pirates closer for the last 2 seasons and has been more than effective.  He's on a good team that should win a lot of games and give him a lot of save chances again this year.
5. Jeurys Familia (Auction $13): Familia got his first chance at closing last year and took the Mets all the way to the World Series.  He really doesn't have anyone that would take the job away from him unless he implodes and should have good enough K/9, ERA, and WHIP to contribute across the board.
6. Hector Rondon (Auction $13): I know I'm higher on Rondon than most, but he has been better over the last 2 years than he gets credit for.  Cubs might win 100 games this year and he should have tons of save chances.  As long as he starts the year off right, the job should be his all year.  My only concern is Madden's history of short leashes with closers.
7. Zach Britton (Auction $12): Britton is an elite ground ball pitcher and has posted a sub 2.00 ERA back to back seasons while closing for the O's.  He has job security and good K/9.  
8. David Robertson (Auction $11): Robertson has closed for 2 years now, and while he has some of the best strikeout ratios in the game, he simply blows more saves than I would like to see.  His ERA is sub-par compared to other established closers.  If he ever does right the ship, he has the potential to be in the top tier.
9. Cody Allen (Auction $11): Allen is similar to Robertson; amazing stuff, but gives up more runs than I would like to see.  He's a bit younger and is still new in his role as a closer.  He has a level of upside that I don't think we've seen yet and he may prove to be a value this year.
10. Trevor Rosenthal (Auction $10): Rosenthal is an odd case. He has 93 saves over the last 2 seasons; more than any other player in the game, but a WHIP that will make your head spin.  How he's able to allow so many base runners but convert so many saves is tough to grasp.  Still he has a great hold on the job and should save a lot of games.
11. Aroldis Chapman (Auction $10): Chapman's value has obviously dropped because of the suspension; however that's not my only concern with him. He's still great, but check out my write up on him here for his other risk factors.
12. Ken Giles (Auction $10): Giles is young, raw and doesn't have a ton of experience in the majors, but his stiff is legit.  The Astros made a move to get him because they feel he's going to be their guy in the 9th.  We're yet to see if he has the makeup to be a closer, but the skills are absolutely there.
    
    Tier 2 has a lot more options than my top tier.  In a perfect draft I would like to have 2 of these top 12 closers.  They have best combination of skill-sets, and job security.  The closer role is a volatile job, but these top 2 tiers are the least risky for me.
    
    
13. A.J. Ramos (Auction $9)
14. Jonathan Papelbon (Auction $9)
15. Shawn Tolleson (Auction $8)
16. Francisco Rodriguez (Auction $8)
17. Huston Street (Auction $7)
18. Andrew Miller (Auction $7)
19. Dellin Betances (Auction $7)
20. Santiago Casilla (Auction $6)
21. Bradley Boxberger (Auction $6)
    
    The above grouping is my third tier.  Some of these guys have a good hold on the job but not necessarily the elite peripherals, while others have excellent stuff but aren't necessarily closers.  Regardless, their overall projected performance warrants enough value for a mid-late round pick.
    
    
22. Darren O'Day (Auction $5)
23. Will Smith (Auction $5)
24. Arodys Vizcaino (Auction $4)
25. Jake McGee (Auction $4)
26. Brad Ziegler (Auction $4)
27. Luke Gregerson (Auction $4)
28. Sean Doolittle (Auction $4)
29. Tony Watson (Auction $4)
30. Joaquin Benoit (Auction $4)
31. Drew Storen (Auction $3)
32. Glen Perkins (Auction $3)
33. Carson Smith (Auction $3)
34. Steve Cishek (Auction $2)
35. Kevin Jepsen (Auction $2)
36. Koji Uehara (Auction $2)
37. Kevin Quackenbush (Auction $1)
38. Jason Motte (Auction $1)
39. David Hernandez (Auction $1)
40. Jason Grilli (Auction $1)

You can see I have quite a large final tier.  Most of these guys have a lot of question marks.  Some may have the job, but not a tight grip on it, while others are hoping to get a chance to close for their teams.  I'm certain a few guys from this tier will break out and be very solid closers in 2016, the tough part is figuring out who those breakouts will be.

Check out all of my positional breakdowns:

Catcher: here
First Base: here
Second Base: here
Third Base: here
Shortstop: here
Outfield: here
Designated Hitter here
Starting Pitching: here
Relief Pitching: here

After completing all of my projections and rankings, starting pitching feels a bit different for me this season.  In years past, I usually felt like there would be pitchers later in the draft I'd be happy to get to fill out my staff.  This year however, it seems to me that there is a huge drop off after the first few tiers.  More than ever, I want to ensure I have 2 - 3 very good if not elite SP's.

In my Projections and Rankings here, I have over 120 starters ranked. I'm only going to focus on a subset that I feel strongly about compared to the masses and provide additional context to my argument.

1. Clayton Kershaw (Auction $43)
2. Max Scherzer (Auction $32)
3. Madison Bumgarner (Auction $30): Most people don't have mad-bum as their #3 starting pitcher.  I have him here for a few reasons: consistency, durability, and effectiveness.  He consistently puts up elite ERA, WHIP and strikeout numbers as he pitches for a good team in the NL.  I get the argument that a couple of others may have more upside, but I would rather have mad-bum and his very high floor as my ace.
4. Chris Sale (Auction $29)
5. David Price (Auction $27)
6. Zack Greinke (Auction $26)
7. Jake Arrieta (Auction $26)
   
   This ends my first tier of starting pitchers.  Technically Kershaw is in a tier of his own, but I think that's somewhat of a given.  I'm not saying I have to have a pitcher from this tier, but if for some reason I don't get one of them, I'm most likely trying to get two SP's from the next tier.
   
   
8. Jacob DeGrom (Auction $25)
9. Stephen Strasburg (Auction $25)
10. Dallas Keuchel (Auction $25): I have Keuchel in my top 10 while most others do not.  I feel strongly that he will come close to repeating the same level of success he had last year.  Check out my detailed analysis why: here
11. Matt Harvey (Auction $24)
12. Jose Fernandez (Auction $23)
13. Corey Kluber (Auction $23)
    
    This ends tier two and it's smaller than expected.  When I started to project numbers and calculate auction values these 6 just happened to be in their own grouping.  It would almost be a must for me to get 1 if not 2 of these guys if I missed out on someone in the top tier.
    
    
14. Gerrit Cole (Auction $19)
15. Johnny Cueto (Auction $19)
16. Sonny Gray (Auction $17)
17. Carlos Carrasco (Auction $17)
18. Chris Archer (Auction $17)
    
    Another smaller tier, but a group of SP's that I would want on my staff.  I would be content having one of these 5 guys as my #2 behind one of the above mentioned aces.
    
    
19. Adam Wainwright (Auction $15)
20. Noah Syndergaard (Auction $15)
21. Felix Hernandez (Auction $15)
22. Jon Lester (Auction $14)
23. Danny Salazar (Auction $14)
24. Michael Wacha (Auction $14)
25. Tyson Ross (Auction $11)
    
    After this group of starters, I feel there is the largest drop-off in talent to the next tier. This is a decent list of names and in a perfect draft I'd like to have one of them as my #3.  If I went heavy with hitting and had one of these guys as a #2, I'd want to make sure I got some of the next best available guys out there quickly.
    
    
26. Hisashi Iwakuma (Auction $9)
27. Masahiro Tanaka (Auction $9)
28. Francisco Liriano (Auction $9)
29. Michael Pineda (Auction $8)
30. Marcus Stroman (Auction $8)
31. Lance McCullers (Auction $8)
32. Cole Hamels (Auction $7): I'm down on Hamels this year and most can tell by this projection.  I have a detailed write up about it here.
33. Carlos Martinez (Auction $7)
34. Yu Darvish (Auction $7)
35. Jordan Zimmermann (Auction $7)
36. Jeff Samardzija (Auction $7)
37. Scott Kazmir (Auction $7)
38. Jaime Garcia (Auction $7)
39. Wei-Yin Chen (Auction $7)
40. Drew Smyly (Auction $6)
41. Garrett Richards (Auction $6) Richards is another starter that I'm very down on compared to the majority.  If he has to be the Angels ace, I think they are in trouble.  He flashed some nice promise in 2014, but took a huge step back in 2015.  Could the real Richards be somewhere in the middle?  Sure. But most projections I've seen have him returning to his 2014 form and I don't see that happening.
42. Collin McHugh (Auction $6)
43. Jose Quintana (Auction $6)
44. Steven Matz (Auction $6)
    
    This was a large cluster of names for sure. There are a lot of question marks as well as upside starters. There are also a few that I'm very down on compared to the majority.  Some in this group would be targets of mine as a 4th pitcher. 
    
    
45. Marco Estrada (Auction $5)
46. Raisel Iglesias (Auction $5)
47. Jake Odorizzi (Auction $5)
48. Jason Hammel (Auction $5)
49. Yordano Ventura (Auction $4)
50. Shelby Miller (Auction $4)
51. James Shields (Auction $4)
52. John Lackey (Auction $3)
53. Clay Buchholz (Auction $3)
54. Taijuan Walker (Auction $3): I’ll have no shares of Walker in 2016.  I'm projecting him for much of the same that we've seen from him already.  Not great control but had good K/9 upside.  Everyone else will take him in a draft before I would.
55. Patrick Corbin (Auction $3)
56. Kyle Hendricks (Auction $3)
57. Justin Verlander (Auction $3)
58. Aaron Nola (Auction $3)
59. Mike Fiers (Auction $2)
60. Jerad Eickhoff (Auction $2)
61. Kenta Maeda (Auction $2)
62. Rich Hill (Auction $2): Hill is someone that most people won't come close to having this high on their big board.  I liked what I saw out of him at the end of last season with the Sox.  While he's a bit long in the tooth, he showed potential for very good K/9 and is now in a very good park. 
63. Matt Shoemaker (Auction $2)
64. Joe Ross (Auction $2)
65. Hyun-Jin Ryu (Auction $2)
66. Chris Heston (Auction $2)

This rounds out my last tier before we hit replacement level starting pitchers. There are a lot of strategies to employ when choosing starters and a lot of names to select from.  Getting a good balance across categories is ideal, but I will suggest targeting starters a bit earlier this year compared to years past.  The game has shifted to a pitching heavy league and those stats translate to fantasy.  To win your pitching categories, ratios are lower than ever and in turn, aces are that much more important to your fantasy team.

Check out my other positional breakdowns:

Catcher: here
First Base: here
Second Base: here
Third Base: here
Shortstop: here
Outfield: here
Designated Hitter here
Starting Pitching: here
Relief Pitching: here