Earlier today the fantasy baseball world went into a mini frenzy when news broke that Ian Desmond signed a 1-year $8 million deal.  While it is nice from a fantasy perspective to know Desmond is finally part of an MLB roster, there were a few things that were surprising about this signing.

This was significantly less money than Desmond was expecting to sign for. He turned down nearly a $16 million offer from the Nationals this off season in the hopes to land a big deal.  Agent Scott Boras is widely known for landing his players lucrative deals and this one fell far short of what Desmond was expecting.

It was also quite a surprise to find that the Rangers were the team to sign Desmond.  Teams like Tampa Bay and Colorado were rumored to be in talks with the free agent shortstop.  When it was reported that the Rangers landed Desmond, the question of playing time quickly arose.  The Rangers have Andrus, how does Desmond fit into the picture?  That question was also answered somewhat quickly: sources reported that Desmond would take over left field responsibilities for the Rangers.

How does this affect Desmond's (and others) fantasy production?  Desmond is coming off of a terrible year.  I'm sure this isn't at all how he wanted to enter his free-agency off season, and I'm certain after today's signing he's second guessing the decision he made a few months ago.  That said, he now has a home and it's time to think about what the 2016 season will look like for Desmond. 

The biggest concern I have is playing time.  The Rangers wouldn't have signed Desmond if they didn't think he would help their team, however they still have veteran Josh Hamilton who was expected to play left field as well as young stud Joey Gallo to consider as potential LF options.  Hamilton is in the later stages of his career and isn't healthy.  We already didn't know what to expect from him due to reoccurring knee issues, but the Desmond signing should significantly cut into his at bats.  That said, he will play some and that will in turn cut into Desmond's at bats. To what extent is yet to be seen.

Then there's Joey Gallo.  Gallo played in 36 games in 2015 and flashed some nice power at times.  Talks were that he might break onto the scene in 2016, however today's signing seems to have put a huge damper on that.  If the Rangers thought he was ready to take over in left field, I'm reasonably certain they wouldn't have signed Desmond.  To me, Gallo was affected most by this deal and isn't even draft-able in most formats anymore.  He will get some playing time, however I'm guessing dramatically reduced.

So where does that leave Desmond?  I haven't changed my projections for him all that much.  I figure he will get most of the time in left field, but also will have the potential to play occasionally around the diamond if others need a day off.  I reduced my overall AB projections a hair which will in turn lower the counting stats I projected before this deal, but overall the numbers look close to the same.

Desmond has been healthy most of his career, and the only reason I would lower his projected AB's furthr is if he touches Beltre's head. My projections for Desmond for 2016 now look like this:

AB: 540
Runs: 62
HR: 19
RBI: 70
SB: 14
AVG: 250

Before I begin this article, I would like to thank the legend himself: Lenny Melnick (@LennyMelnick). We had a very spirited back and forth about this topic and he was kind enough to mention me a couple of times during his podcast a few days ago while discussing his point of view.  While we disagree on this topic, I can understand and accept his point of view, even though I'm opposed to it.  He has accomplished more in his career than I could ever hope to amass so he's absolutely doing something right.  Now, onto the article...

One common reoccurring suggestion I’ve heard from many experts in the fantasy baseball community is “wait on closers” or “don’t pay for closers”.  You can always get saves late in drafts, or guys lose their job as the months pass and there are plenty of saves to be claimed off the waiver wire.  While all of these statements may be true in some cases, I’m going to give you an argument why you should draft closers often, early, and plenty of them.

Depending on the format of your leagues, this strategy may be more or less beneficial, but I have seen this strategy be very successful across a variety of formats.  For this discussion I will focus on a very common format: 12 team 5x5 standard roto league.  Not that this is the only format where this strategy works, however it is one that most people reading this article should be able to relate to.

Now, here's why you should go after the elite closers and relievers:

Their actual statistical impact is under-valued.
The first thing I recommend: Stop thinking of closers as a 1 category investment.  Most people equate closers with saves and it’s simply not the case.  Most closers, especially the elite ones contribute in all 5 standard pitching categories.  The elite ones contribute in saves, but also in ERA, WHIP and K's more than they receive credit for. Yes, they pitch less innings than a starter would, but in my next example I will show how impactful two or three elite closers can be together.

I’m going to take one of my teams from a few years ago as an example.  I drafted three closers in the 7th, 9th, and 12th rounds respectively.  Their stat line read like this for that season year:

Looking back you could argue that these combined stats were those of a Cy Young candidate; plus an extra 108 saves.  Some would also say I was fortunate that all three closers worked out so well for me.  Later in this article I'll discuss why this isn't so much luck.  Now, I needed to spend 3 mid-round picks for these stats, but let's look at the final roto standings for that season:

Had I completely ignored this team and made no in season moves or roster adjustments, I would have accumulated enough saves to finish with 9 points in that category. I understand that may not seem like a lot, but with in-season moves and waiver wire pickups, this strategy can easily get you close to the top spot. In addition to the saves, let's not forget the 201K's, 9 wins, and amazing ERA and WHIP.  It is a bit difficult to quantify the impact of the wins and strikeouts in this example, but I look at them as a bonus to whatever my starters accumulate.  When drafting I really don't worry too much about wins because they are so volatile, especially for relievers. Closer should accumulate at least a couple and help you in the final standings.

If we turn the focus to the elite ERA and WHIP we can more easily see the impact.  In this league as an example, an average team threw 1400 IP.  For my team a little over 200 IP came from these 3 closers (close to 15% of my IP).  If my starters put up an ERA of 3.60 for the remaining 1200 IP, my closers would have lowered my team's ERA for the year down to 3.45.  This may not seem like a lot; however this would have moved the needle for my team 3 standings points in the ERA category. The same goes for WHIP, had my starters posted a WHIP of 1.20 for their 1200 IP, my 3 closers would have lowered it to 1.17 gaining me an additional 4 points.  Again, I can't easily quantify with certainty the K's or wins, but for the sake of argument I'm going to say they gained me 2 more points in the standings which I believe is conservative yet realistic.  Accumulate these points, and my 3 closers alone single handedly are responsible for 19-20 gained points in my roto league final standings.  That is significant value, and almost always completely overlooked.  I understand not every league will work our exactly the same way. It has worked out for me in a similar way many times and at times, I've seen the ERA and WHIP points swing even more than in this example.

I've mentioned that all leagues have varied rules and are unique.  Many leagues institute a Games Started (GS) or an Innings Pitched (IP) limit to prevent players from pitching countless starters each day and dominating the wins and strikeouts categories by streaming. If your league uses a GS limit, closers/relievers don’t factor into that limit and are extremely important.  You can use as many as you like, and their stats only add to your team’s categories while not impacting your GS limit.  Use this to your advantage. 

It’s not only closers that have great value and often get under-valued, other relievers that don’t accumulate saves can also provide a positive impact for your team. Here are three setup guys from the same season mentioned in my last example.  While they didn’t accumulate many saves, they still could have been a tremendous value for someone’s team:

If a team owned these three players for most of the season, they essentially would have had the equivalent of a Cy Young caliber starter as well.  The 300 k’s would be a great boost to your team’s total and an ERA of 1.58 and a WHIP of 1.02 for a combined 242 innings would lower any team’s respective stats.  Also, these players were quite available in most leagues.  Because they didn’t project to accumulate a lot of wins or saves, these non-closer relievers are often overlooked year to year and can be drafted in the very last rounds or even claimed off of waivers.

Let’s now consider the other league format I mentioned earlier, Innings Pitched limit.  Even if your league uses an IP limit, the value of having these elite relievers is significant.  With IP limit leagues you need to get the most value of each inning accumulated.  You might sacrifice somewhat on your wins total by using these types of players (though not necessarily as relievers do get some random wins), you are going to gain dramatically when it comes to K’s, ERA, and WHIP.  Elite relievers generally have elite K/9 rates, as well as low ERA and WHIP, which provide a lot of value in IP limit leagues.  In general, fantasy baseball players neglect the most non-closer relievers (especially if your league doesn’t count holds as a category), but after looking at the above numbers, it is very tough to ignore the value.

These examples show how a solid collection of closers can impact your team's overall statistics. I'll now move onto my next argument for drafting elite closers:

Investing early promotes job security.
It's an awful feeling when one of your players goes down to an injury or loses his job.  It's especially painful when it's a closer and you have no way to get additional saves.  Unless you already have his replacement on your team, you'll likely lose out on a good chunk of saves going forward.  While there is a lot of turnover at the closer position, there isn't usually a lot of turnover with the elite closers. I also believe there is a science in predicting which closers are at the highest/lowest risk for keeping and losing their jobs.  I wrote a piece here discussing many variables other than skills that impact a closers job security.

To summarize that article, by doing research about all 30 projected closers, you're giving yourself the best chance to draft elite closers that will keep their jobs all season.  Looking at my previous example, someone may argue that I was very lucky that the three closers I drafted all worked out well for me.  There may be some truth to that, however I strongly believe there is significantly less risk for closer busts when you're evaluating and targeting the elite ones properly.

There are only 30 closers. When one hits waivers, they can be tough to claim.
If for some reason you didn't end up with the closers you wanted during the draft, you still have the ability to pick them up throughout the year.  While the elite closers tend to keep their jobs, there will likely be 10-15 closers that change jobs at some point during the season.  Some would say this reinforces the argument to punt saves during the draft and just wait to pick them up later.  Not so fast... this is not as simple as it sounds for a couple of reasons:

1. Everyone targets closers in their waiver claims: Should a closer become available, there is no guarantee your team will be able to claim him off of waivers or win him with your FAAB bidding.  If you're playing in any type of competitive league, just about every other team in your league will also be trying to claim him.  The best way to combat this is to try and pick up potential closers before they take over the job, but this isn't easy to predict.  It's possible to get them throughout the year and diligent team managers will get some, however it's not at all a guarantee like getting them in the draft. 
   
   
2. You will have to pay more than you think: As mentioned in my last point, there will be closers that become available, but at what cost? In a waiver system, the cost it static.  You lose your waiver priority and that's not necessarily a huge deal and often worth it if you are able to claim a closer.  In FAAB leagues though, I've seen closers go for significant chunks of teams budgets.  Especially if it's early in the year, I've seen teams spend 20%, 30%, even more of their budget for a closer.  It's fine if you get him and he keeps the job for the whole season, but consider this counterpoint: Why didn't he have the job to begin the year.  Many times, it's because he wasn't the best guy for the job.  If the best guy lost his job because of injury or performance, then it's possible that he will regain it later in the year.  In this case, you've spent a huge chunk of your FAAB budget for a rental closer.  This is another example why I'd rather have one with the elite skills/peripherals that has the greatest chance to keep the job all year.
   

I've covered many reasons why you should focus on getting elite closers.  Now, let's consider some of the common counter-points:

You pass up too much talent in the middle rounds if you draft closers:
Another argument I’ve seen is the investment during the draft for these elite relievers is too great.  If I’m using picks in rounds 7-12 to get 3 closers for example, I’m missing out on other, potentially great players. Anyone that has played fantasy baseball for a while should understand that almost any draft pick can be a bust.  That said, I feel the elite closer picks bust far less than any other picks.  Elite closers have insane skillsets and ratios that are unmatched by other pitchers in the game. 

If I decided to wait on closers and did a fantastic job drafting in rounds 7-12, maybe it's possible that I would have drafted a better overall team.  But the security that the elite closers provide coupled with my confidence to draft well in the later rounds gives me enough assurance in my strategy.

History has also proven you can find values later in drafts.  If you have prepped well and done research heading into your draft, your picks in the middle to later rounds should be valuable enough to keep your team competitive in all of the hitting categories.  Granted I might not be as good as the other teams that punted saves, but I don't need to be.  I don't need to win every category, I just need to stay competitive.  Getting the elite closers puts me in a position to win saves as well as finish very high in ERA, WHIP, and K's.  I'm comfortable taking my chances with my later round picks to stay competitive batting.

You don't need to invest in elite closers. You can still draft closers, just later:
This is a fair point to an extent, but you lose a too much value in many cases.  The elite closers that go off the board early, go early for a number of reasons: elite skills, proven track record, job security, potential for saves, etc.  If you're getting 3 closers but they are all in the bottom 1/3 of all ranked closers, there is a big drop-off in skill and job security.  This tier of closers I do consider more of a 1 stat contributor and often they can be a detriment to your ERA and WHIP as opposed to a positive.  They are also the most likely candidates to lose the job or be part of a time share.  Can you catch lightning in a bottle and get one that's an over-performer?  Yes, these types of guys break out every year as well, but that's more the anomaly as opposed to the rule.

Conclusion:
I know that some would argue the points that I’ve made, and there is some evidence showing that you can punt saves and still be very successful in certain formats, but I will respectfully disagree.  If you’re in a head to head league then this might not be the article for you, and punting is quite viable to succeed. I've been drafting for 10+ years using this strategy and it has consistently led me to successful seasons.

Investing in relievers is something you can do where you may not necessarily see the results in your daily stat card, but trust me, at the end of a season when you’re atop the standings, you’ll thank me.

If you've done any research this year, you've probably noticed how top heavy third base it. There are a some very nice early round selections that would be options at 3B, but also some values for the mid-rounds and even later round picks. There looks to be both speed and power options depending on your team's need and I find myself having a lot of flexibility with my 3B choices compared to other positions.

1. Josh Donaldson (Auction $36): Last year's AL MVP, Donaldson is #1 at 3B for me and #5 overall on my big board.  Tremendous power in the middle of a great lineup.  Everything to like here.
   
   My projections for Donaldson: 104 / 36 / 115 / 5 / 0.276
   
   
2. Nolan Arenado (Auction $34): Arenado had a huge power surge last season hitting 42 bombs.  While Colorado is very accommodating for power bats, this was a big jump that even the most optimistic Arenado fans didn't see coming.  I think he can hit 30 again, but I doubt 40.  Still, he should be good enough to warrant a first round pick.
   
   My projections for Arenado: 91 / 32 / 110 / 3 / 0.287
   
   
3. Manny Machado (Auction $33): Like Arenado, Machado also had a massive uptick in power in 2015.  I don't think that's the real Machado and I don't think that's what we can expect from him in 2016; but I do think he will be an elite 5 tool 3B option.
   
   My projections for Machado: 96 / 27 / 86 / 18 / 0.286
   
   
4. Kris Bryant (Auction $29): In some drafts, it will be possible to see all top four 3B options go in the first round.  Bryant wasn't necessarily a guy I was targeting last year and I missed out on a huge season.  He's a power bat that also has a little SB upside.  I still think in his second season his average might struggle a bit, but hitting in a great Cubs lineup, he will have a lot of opportunity for run production.
   
   My projections for Bryant: 90 / 29 / 99 / 11 / 0.273
   
   
5. Todd Frazier (Auction $18): From Bryant to Frazier, there is a tier change and a reasonable drop off in projected production.  After winning the HR derby last year, Frazier had a horrendous finish to 2015 hitting just .220 in the second half. I expect him to bounce back and still have both power and some speed, but not an amazing average.
   
   My projections for Frazier: 78 / 27 / 87 / 11 / 0.254
   
   
6. Kyle Seager (Auction $17): Seager is about as steady as they come from a production perspective. Now 28, I think Seager had a very high floor with some upside still.  20-25 HR's and 6-12 SB is absolutely something to expect.
   
   My projections for Seager: 77 / 24 / 80 / 7 / 0.267


7. Adrian Beltre (Auction $15): Beltre is approaching the end of a potential hall of fame career.  Soon to be 37, he's still a productive 3B option.  While many may shy away from him in drafts for a younger player, I think he can still be a safe bet for steady production.  While he may not be the Beltre of old, he's still in a good Rangers lineup and should still put up a solid average and some power.  Just don't touch his head.
   
   My projections for Beltre: 79 / 17 / 81 / 1 / 0.281
   
   
8. Matt Carpenter (Auction $15): Carpenter really has transformed over the last few seasons.  He has gone from a great contact hitter to a power bat at 3B.  In 2013 he lead the league in hits while batting .318 with a K% of 13.7.  In 2015 he only hit .272, upped his k% to 22.7 but had a huge jump in power to mash 28 HR's.  He can seeming do whatever he wants (which is truly impressive) however I can't imagine he's going to go back to being a contact hitter  --  chicks dig the long ball.  That said, I also don't expect him to belt 28 HR's again either.  What I expect is a lot of runs scored at the top of a good lineup with power and speed sprinkled in.
   
   My projections for Carpenter: 95 / 18 / 66 / 4 / 0.273
   
   
9. Matt Duffy (Auction $15): Duffy is one of my top 3 batters that I'm really high on this year. Check out my take on him here.
   
   My projections for Duffy: 62 / 13 / 70 / 14 / 0.286
   
   
10. Anthony Rendon (Auction $12): I'm banking on a bit of a bounce back with Rendon this season. All of last year was essentially a wash for him, but lets not forget how successful and on the rise he was in 2014.  This kid is only 25, and should be able to score runs in what should be a much better Nationals lineup this season.
    
    My projections for Rendon: 69 / 14 / 65 / 12 / 0.277
    
    
11. Evan Longoria (Auction $10): Now mostly just a name to me, expectations have been tempered for Longoria.  I think he can still produce and give a fantasy team reasonable production, but I'm somewhat certain he will go in drafts a bit earlier than I would be willing to take him by name recognition alone.
    
    My projections for Longoria: 72 / 21 / 74 / 2 / 0.263
    
    
12. Maikel Franco (Auction $10): In 80 games with the Phillies last year, Franco showed some power, hitting 14 HR's and driving in 50.  Now, I don't expect that to double to 28 and 100 in what should be a full season, but I do think he can put up good numbers in 2016.
    
    My projections for Franco: 60 / 19 / 73 / 4 / 0.269
    
    
13. Mike Moustakas (Auction $9): Moose finally lived up to the hype that had surrounded him for most of his career in 2015.  Following down seasons in 13 and 14, his 2015 campaign was solid across the board, hitting both for good power and contact.  Some underlying metrics like K%, ISO, and HR/FB ratio are all trending in the right direction.  It's very plausible that we can expect a similar Moustakas in 2016.
    
    My projections for Moustakas: 68 / 19 / 74 / 1 / 0.264
    
    
14. Josh Harrison (Auction $8): Harrison is another guy I'm very high on this year compared to most.  Check out my take on Harrison here.
    
    My projections for Harrison: 67 / 9 / 55 / 14 / 0.277
    
    
15. Daniel Murphy (Auction $7): Murphy is dual eligible at 2B and 3B. Check out what I wrote about Murphy in my second base projections here.
    
    My projections for Murphy: 64 /10 / 60 / 5 / 0.283
    
    
16. Jung-Ho Kang (Auction $7): In his first year with the Pirates, Kang put up decent numbers.  His BABIP coupled with his GB% may have suggested he as a bit lucky with some of his hits, but overall I am projecting him for similar type of production in 2016.
    
    My projections for Kang: 61 /14 / 56 / 4 / 0.280
    
    
17. Justin Turner (Auction $5): My biggest concern for Turner is playing time. There are a lot of mouths to feed in LA and I think Turner may be the odd man out more than others. If he was on another team and guaranteed more of a starting job, I would probably have him ranked a bit higher.
    
    My projections for Turner: 56 /12 / 58 / 6 / 0.276
    
    
18. Brett Lawrie (Auction $3): I feel 2016 is the year expectations are finally in line with Lawrie.  The last couple of seasons the hype train surrounding him was crazy.  Now, the masses seem to have tempered expectations and are projecting him where he should be.  If you're going to wait, he will be fine and put up reasonable numbers for a later round 3B.
    
    My projections for Lawrie: 61 /15 / 60 / 3 / 0.262
    
    
19. Trevor Plouffe (Auction $2): The Twins don't have the most hitter friendly ballpark or the most powerful lineup.  They are a younger team and there is a ton of potential, but I think it's tough to predict what to expect.  Then there's Plouffe who has been relatively consistent over the last three years.  He had a nice ROI in 2015 compared to expectations as he put up 22 HR's, and while I don't think he will reach that level again, I do think he will be fine hitting in the middle of that order.
    
    My projections for Plouffe: 62 /18 / 64 / 2 / 0.251
    
    
20. Nick Castellanos (Auction $2): Castellanos will likely be hitting in the bottom 3rd of the order and that will limit his run opportunities.  He has a reasonable last couple of years and there is upside for 2016, however I don't have him projected all that much higher.
    
    My projections for Castellanos: 51 /16 / 70 / 0 / 0.261
    
    
21. David Wright (Auction $2): I like the Mets to have another very good year, but much of that will be in spite of Wright.  He has only one full season of games played over his last 5 years, and when he is on the field, his skills have declined to a mediocre level. His name value will make him go in drafts higher than he should.  Don't bite.
    
    My projections for Wright: 53 /12 / 54 / 3 / 0.274
    
    
22. Yangervis Solarte (Auction $1): 60 / 11 / 58 / 1 / .268
23. Pablo Sandoval (Auction $1): 62 / 11 / 58 / 0 / .268
24. Martin Prado (Auction $1): 51 / 8 / 61 / 1 / .278
25. Yunel Escobar (Auction $1): 57 / 8 / 51 / 2 / .278
26. Danny Valencia (Auction $1): 50 / 14 / 54 / 3 / .255
27. Chase Headley (Auction $1): 67 / 12 / 60 / 0 / .252
28. Lonnie Chisenhall (Auction $1): 53 / 11 / 49 / 5 / .256
29. Adonis Garcia (Auction $1): 42 / 15 / 40 / 0 / .267
30. Yasmany Tomas (Auction $1): 41 / 10 / 47 / 4 / .264
31. Luis Valbuena (Auction $1): 58 / 17 / 52 / 1 / .235
32. Jed Lowrie (Auction $1): 52 / 10 / 50 / 1 / .259
33. Jake Lamb (Auction $1): 43 / 8 / 37 / 4 / .266
34. Brock Holt (Auction $1): 40 / 3 / 36 / 4 / .278
35. Tyler Saladino (Auction $1): 39 / 6 / 32 / 13 / .242

Third base has 4 huge superstars that can go in the first round of your draft.  If you don't get one of them, there are still great options in the middle and later rounds.  Of all of the positions I will be drafting this year, 3B is one I think I will feel very comfortable no matter who I get.

Check out my other positional breakdowns:

Catcher: here
First Base: here
Second Base: here
Third Base: here
Shortstop: here
Outfield: here
Designated Hitter here
Starting Pitching: here
Relief Pitching: Coming soon

When thinking about your league's scoring system and more specifically which categories are used, there are a number of options out there.  Some fantasy baseball players prefer the standard 5x5 scoring system:

Others prefer to deviate from the "standard" and add/substitute categories.  There are many other non-standard categories that can be used, and I could post countless blog entries discussing all of them.  Today however, there is one specific category that is commonly used as a non-standard category that I want to dig a bit deeper into and discuss some of it's pro's and con's: Quality Starts (QS).

A quality start is a category that can only apply to a starting pitcher, similar to how a save can only apply to a reliever.  A quality start occurs when a pitcher starts a game, pitches at least 6 innings, and allows 3 or less earned runs.  For some time now it has been accepted as a metric to determine if a starting pitcher pitched well enough to give his team a reasonable chance to win the game.  Now, rather than get into a debate about the metric itself (I would argue that it's a bit too lenient), for the sake of this article, let's assume it's validity. 

In many leagues I've seen as well as been a part of, Wins are often replaced with Quality Starts as one of the pitching categories.  Those who advocate for QS's argue that it is much more indicative of a starters performance compared to a Win.  Too often, Wins are out of a pitchers control and even if they pitched very well, do not receive credit for their performance.  I absolutely agree, and when comparing Quality Starts to Wins, Quality Starts are much more indicative of a pitchers performance. 

Even with these positive things to say about QS as a metric, I am still in favor of Wins as a category.  I concede that Wins are more random, less of an accurate measure of performance and flawed.  For the sake of my next few points, consider a common scenario where someone is debating on replacing Wins with Quality Starts as a category in their league:

• Relievers cannot get a Quality Start: The counter argument to this is starters cannot get saves. To me, it's comparing apples to oranges.  Fantasy relevant starting pitchers accumulate 2.5 to 3x the IP compared to fantasy relevant relievers.  An elite starter can only have an impact on 4 categories, however the impact can be huge.  A relievers can contribute in all 5 categories, however because the total IP is so much less compared to a starter, the overall value is less.  On average, a relievers would  only accumulate 3 - 5 wins over the course of a season. Multiply that across 3 - 4 RP's (or more) on a fantasy roster and there can be significant standings affecting impact.  If you take  Wins away, they still can contribute in the other categories, however it devalues their overall fantasy production... production that is already less than what a starter could produce simply based on sheer volume.
  
  Rostering a good number of elite relievers is a great strategy in deeper leagues to lower ratios, accumulate extra K's (with great K/9) and accumulate additional Wins.  I'll leave my love for relievers for another day, but you get my point.
  
  
• Wins are random and Quality Starts reward pitchers more for pitching well: As already mentioned, I like the concept of a quality start. I love that a pitchers that pitches well should be rewarded on your fantasy team.  However many studies have shown over time that pitchers that accumulate a large % of QS over the course of a season would have also accumulated a large % of Wins comparatively.  The sheer numbers would be less, however correlating to the total pool of stats, the ratios usually fall in line for most pitchers.  There are always some outliers, however so goes it with most stats.  My point is, pitchers that would lead the league in QS, would have a likely chance to lead the league in Wins.  You may have some pitchers who's QS to Win ratio would vary greatly, however knowing this going into a draft is just an additional strategic advantage for those who have put in the proper research.  This leads into my next point...
  
  
• As random as Wins are, they add additional strategy to fantasy baseball: Wins aren't completely random.  While they are team dependent just as much as they are pitcher dependent, they are predictable to an extent.  If a good starter is on a 90-100 win team, he will have a better chance for Wins than a good starter on a 60 Win team.  When I'm creating my projections each year, I have to take into account the skills of the pitcher but also the strength of his team, other teams in his division, and the league in general.  While all of these things don't have to do with the pitcher himself, they are strategic and a part of the game that I enjoy projecting.  At the end of the day, fantasy baseball is all about projection stats.  This is a variant of it, and to me, and requires lots of strategy.
  
  
• Non-closer relievers lose tremendous value:  As if middle relievers and setup men didn't have it tough enough in fantasy, replacing Wins with QS makes them even more irrelevant.  I'm an advocate for playing in deeper leagues where good non-reliever closers have a role on teams.  Just because someone isn't in the closer role and isn't acquiring saves, doesn't mean they aren't providing value to their teams.  Removing wins now makes these pitchers 3 category pitchers and by accumulating less than 100 IP, it's even more difficult for even the best non-closer relief pitchers to provide much fantasy impact on your team.
  
  Now there are other ways to resolve the relief pitcher concerns.  One way is to add holds as a category. I'm not going to get into that argument for the sake of this article.  Lets just say I'm ok with holds as a category, but more thought needs to go into other category selection if you're going to add holds.

Are Wins perfect, not by a long shot.  Are quality starts a more accurate indication of a pitchers performance?  Probably. Even still, Quality Starts themselves are not quite perfect.  Taking all of these factors into account, i would rather play with Wins.

Julio Teheran is entering his 4th big league season with the Braves this year. In 2014, just about everything went right for him on his way to a great year, however in 2015 I feel we saw more of the real Teheran.  Many people are predicting a bounce back, while I'm projecting Teheran for even more regression. 

Here are some numbers to consider.  Over the last three seasons, BB%, K/BB ratio and Line Drive% ratio have all trended in the wrong direction for Tehrean.  While last year was abysmal compared to 2014, overall his first 3 seasons in the bigs are less than impressive (and that's including a good 2014).  He has a career K/9 of 7.70, average at best for a fantasy starter in most formats.  His walk rate is heading in the wrong direction and that's very concerning for someone that should be maintaining better control as he heads into the prime years of his career.  These things considered, I expect his WHIP to be high again and similar to last year.  Even if he improves, he would have to improve dramatically to get it back to his career average of 1.19, and I don't see that happening with his current career arc.

Wins are always tough to project, but the Braves should be a bad team this season.  Even if Teheran pitches well, run support will likely be an issue and everything would have to break right for him to pull off 13+ wins (which I think is unlikely).

The one positive you can say about Teheran is durability.  He's put up 185+ IP 3 years in a row.  However if the K/9 is going to be under 8 and the WHIP/ERA are going to be worse an average fantasy SP as I project, those innings are going to hurt your team more than help.

The stats say that he was a bit lucky in 2014 to have a good of a season as he did. He was probably a but unlucky to have as bad of a year as he did in 2015, but not by much.  He would need to do the following to be a good value at his current ADP:

• Lower his 2015 BB/9 by at least .75 to bring it under 2.50.
• Increase his 2015 K/9 from 7.67 to 8.50.
• Drop his 2015 HR/FB ratio from his mark of 13% down to 10%.

Are these things all possible, sure, however with the trajectory of his skills over the first three seasons, I'm not banking on it.  I would take him in a draft at the right price, but my ranking is quite off from his ADP.  He's being drafted in most leagues around the 160 mark while I have him sitting outside of my top 300.  My advice: stay away from Teheran.

Many would say that second base is a thinner position most years.  To an extent I would agree, but that doesn't make me reach any sooner than I have to for a second baseman or middle infielder.  Unless I'm in an AL/NL only league or super deep league, there is usually someone late I'm content with drafting.  This year isn't all that different.  There are a few elite guys on the board followed by some decent second tier talent.  Let's take a look at my big board at 2B:

1. Jose Altuve (Auction $34): I don't think there is any question that Altuve is the clear cut #1.  He's been as dominant as any contact hitter we've seen in the last decade or so.  He has lead the league in hits in back-to-back years and has a ton of speed on top of that.  If you take him early, you'll need to make up power elsewhere in the draft but it should be worth the investment.
   
   My projections for Altuve: 82 / 11 / 59 / 35 / .317
   
   
2. Dee Gordon (Auction $29): Gordon is also my clear cut #2 second baseman this year.  He won the NL batting title last year out of nowhere, however one stat that makes me think a repeat is possible: Gordon legged out 97 infield singles last year.  That much speed turns outs into hits.
   
   My projections for Gordon: 85 / 3 / 45 / 60 / .297
   
   
3. Robinson Cano (Auction $22): A pretty big drop off from the first 2, Cano had a terrible start to 2015, but finished with a bang.  Which was the real Cano?  Probably somewhere in the middle.  He's closer to the end of his career than the beginning, but I don't think the skills have fallen off the table yet.
   
   My projections for Cano: 78 / 22 / 77 / 2 / .294
   
   
4. Ian Kinsler (Auction $16): Of the top 2B options, Kinsler is the one I will probably targeting the most.  With the recent changes to the lineup in Detroit, Kinsler should have a chance to score a ton of runs.  He should be hitting at the top of that lineup all season and while he doesn't have great power or speed, he has enough to make it worth the reasonable early pick.
   
   My projections for Kinsler: 91 / 12 / 71 / 11 / .278
   
   
5. Jason Kipnis (Auction $13): Just the opposite of Cano, Kipnis had an amazing first half to 2015 and then fell off a cliff.  Similarly, I think the real Kipnis is somewhere in the middle.  I don't love the Indians lineup, but he will get his share of run chances.
   
   My projections for Kipnis: 83 / 12 / 60 / 15 / .274
   
   
6. Anthony Rendon (Auction $12): Really big wild card we have on our hands here.  In 2014 he almost went 20/20 and scored 111 runs.  Last year, he had an abysmal year filled with constant injuries.  Coming into 2016 he's seemingly healthy and I would look for a reasonable bounce back from Rendon.  Not to the 2014 production necessarily, but I wouldn't be shocked if he came close.
   
   My projections for Rendon: 69 / 14 / 65 / 12 / .277
   
   
7. Rougned Odor (Auction $11): Odor played in his second full season in 2015 and showed some nice improvements in his second year.  He hit for more power, ran a bit more and raised his average a hair.  All things you want to see from a second year youngster.  I don't see a lot of reason why that can't continue with his firm grip on the 2B job for the Rangers.
   
   My projections for Odor: 68 / 17 / 69 / 9 / .269
   
   
8. Brian Dozier (Auction $11): I love everything about Dozier, except his ability to hit the ball. He has very good power for a second baseman and also good speed on the bases.  His contact rate is tough to swallow however.  Now 3 full seasons under his belt and a career batting average of .240,  I can't put him higher on this list, even with 20/20 upside.
   
   My projections for Dozier: 88 / 22 / 72 / 14 / .243
   
   
9. DJ LeMahieu (Auction $11): I'm a fan of almost anyone hitting in Colorado, but LeMahieu doesn't exactly have power upside to take advantage of Coors field.  That said, I do think he has 20 SB upside and can hit above .280.
   
   My projections for LeMahieu: 67 / 7 / 57 / 18 / .285
   
   
10. Ben Zobrist (Auction $9): Every season I feel like Zobrist is a value. While the counting stats have declined a bit from his 20/20 potential days, he's still putting up good numbers.  He should  also have a chance to score a lot of runs at the top of the Cubs lineup.
    
    My projections for Zobrist: 85 / 12 / 58 / 6 / .274
    
    
11. Dustin Pedroia (Auction $9): 2015 was the first year in the last 5 seasons Pedroia didn't play in at least 135 games.  Normally consistent, he was hurt for much of last year.  Reports are that he's good to go coming into 2016, but may be heading towards the downside of his prime.
    
    My projections for Pedroia: 74 / 11 / 60 / 5 / .28
    
    
12. Josh Harrison (Auction $8): I know that I'm much higher on Harrison than most.  For everything you need to know, check out my take on Harrison here.
    
    My projections for Harrison: 67 / 9 / 55 / 14 / .277
    
    
13. Kolten Wong (Auction $8): Now entering his third full year with the Cardnials, he reminds me a lot of Zobrist in his younger days. I think he has one of the biggest chances to out perform his ADP.
    
    My projections for Wong: 67 / 12 / 60 / 16 / .264
    
    
14. Neil Walker (Auction $8): Walker is replacing Daniel Murphy at 2B for the Mets and I think he should pick up right where Murphy left off (well, not post season Murphy). Same old consistent Neil Walker.
    
    My projections for Walker: 67 / 17 / 66 / 3 / .267
    
    
15. Daniel Murphy (Auction $7): Another guy I wouldn't mind having if I waited on my 2B, Murphy should continue to produce similar to his career averages.  As already mentioned though, do not expect that he will have a power jump like we saw in the 2015 post season.
    
    My projections for Murphy: 64 / 10 / 60 / 5 / .283
    
    
16. Howie Kendrick (Auction $6): I normally like Kendrick, but I think there is a playing time concern.  I have him projected for less than 500 AB's otherwise I would have counting stats a bit higher and have him more up my board.
    
    My projections for Kendrick: 60 / 9 / 59 / 7 / .282
    
    
17. Starlin Castro (Auction $6): Changing teams is a concern for me, however he is going to a much better stadium. That said, not a tremendous amount of power or speed upside.  If he hits at the top of the Yankees lineup, he should have a good chance to score runs however.
    
    My projections for Castro: 65 /15 / 62 / 4 / .266
    
    
18. Logan Forsythe (Auction $5): Forsythe has a nice power uptick last year for the Rays.  He also has some SB opportunities and while not a big bat or runner, he's contributes enough in all categories to be a later round value at 2B.
    
    My projections for Forsythe: 65 /14 / 66 / 7 / .258
    
    
19. Brandon Phillips (Auction $4): Still going strong at age 34, Phillips showed unexpected speed last year swiping 23 bags.  I don't know if we can expect him to continue to do that, however he should still have decent run scoring chances at the top of the reds lineup, as bad as it may be.
    
    My projections for Phillips: 57 /12 / 55 / 10 / .268
    
    
20. Brett Lawrie (Auction $3): Lawrie has always been a ton of potential that has never lived up to expectations.  I think its safe to say we know who the real Lawrie is and that's a decent hitting, decent fielding 2B option.  Not a ton of power (but enough) and not a ton of speed.  If you're not going big at 2B, he's an ok option.
    
    My projections for Lawrie: 61 /15 / 60 / 3 / .262
    
    
21. Devon Travis (Auction $3): Travis showed a little bit of power and speed before getting hurt last year and missing 2/3 of the year.  His average was particularly impressive which he did throughout his minor league career.  If he can bounce back in 2016 we should expect a similar trend.
    
    My projection for Travis: 49 / 9 / 51 / 10 / .280
    
    
22. Addison Russell (Auction $2): In his first full season, Russell flash a number of times, but didn't put it all together.  He has a lot of the skills to be a great hitter one day, but there are still holes in his swing and pitchers exposed that last year.  I expect he will take a step forward in 2016, but not to the level that everyone expects.  That's still a few years away.
    
    My projection for Russell: 57 / 15 / 61 / 7 / .255
    
    
23. Joe Panik (Auction $1): 62 / 8 / 46 / 4 / .277
24. Cesar Hernandez (Auction $1): 60 / 2 / 38 / 20 / .271
25. Jonathan Schoop (Auction $1): 42 / 17 / 45 / 2 / .258
26. Danny Espinosa (Auction $1): 58 / 15 / 42 / 7 / .243
27. Cory Spangenberg (Auction $1): 44 / 7 / 34 / 10 / .274
28. Chris Owings (Auction $1): 60 / 6 / 41 / 18 / .246
29. Scooter Gennett (Auction $1): 48 / 8 / 31 / 2 / .275
30. Brock Holt (Auction $1): 40 / 3 / 36 / 4 / .278
31. Javier Baez (Auction $1): 30 / 11 / 31 / 6 / .251
32. Chase Utley (Auction $1): 43 / 10 / 40 / 3 / .239

Looking a bit deeper at my projections, second base feels a bit deeper this year than in years past.  While I'd be happy with any of the top options, I'm be content with a number of the mid to late round picks as well.  My middle infield slot will likely be filled by a 2B option, but that says more about the lack of talent at  SS.

Check out my other positional breakdowns:

Catcher: here
First Base: here
Second Base: here
Third Base: here
Shortstop: here
Outfield: here
Designated Hitter here
Starting Pitching: here
Relief Pitching: Coming soon

Going back a few years now, Josh Reddick has been a bit of an under valued outfielder.  Entering his 8th season in the majors, he's really only has a chance to show off his potential a few times.  Twice in his career has he posted seasons of 145+ games, but when he has... he has shined.  Much of this has been because of opportunity.  He simply was the 4th guy in line in Boston, and even platooned a bit while in Oakland.  In his first full season in 2012 he exploded with offensive production posting 32 HR's, 85 RBI's, and 11SB's.  Granted I don't expect him to return to that level, but I do think he could repeat his modest numbers of last season.

In 2015 is hit .272 while belting 20 HR's and swiping 10 bags.  Not elite, but very good for a 4th or 5th OF.  If you look at some of the underlying sabermetrics behind these numbers, you can deduce that they are very repeatable.  Last year he also posted the lowest K% of his career (11.2%), highest BB/K ratio of his career (0.75), and second highest HR/FB ratio of his career only behind his massive 2012 season.  Mash these together and it tells me that he had a much improved eye at the plate last year.  While .272 was well above his career mark of .251, I leaning towards him repeating last year's success rather than regressing back to the mean.  Reddick turns 29 this month and should have a few more good seasons in his prime.  

One of the best things about Reddick is his draft day price.  Current ADP numbers have him a little over 200th overall.  If you're telling me that I can have a potential 20/10 guy at that point in the draft, sign me up now.  I think there's more upside to these numbers as well.  He should hit 4th in the Oakland lineup and the recent addition on Khris Davis should only help him see better pitches and have added RBI opportunities.

Please come join me on the Josh Reddick bandwagon.

I was again fortunate enough to participate in an expert mock draft run by Howard Bender over at RealTime Fantasy Sports.  And again, Howard, from Fantasy Alarm and host on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, wasn't the only expert in this draft.  Ivar Anderson (@johnwhorfin), writer for FantasyGameday.net  and FantasyAlarm.com was also a participant as well as Sean Murphy (@bpsmurph), contribute at Numberfire, Last Word on MLB, & Hardball Scoop. There were also a number of other excellent players making this quite a competitive mock.

Similar to my last mock (check it out here), this one was a 23 round standard 12 team draft (14 hitters / 9 pitchers).  This time I landed with the 11th pick overall which was a nice change of pace.  In other recent mocks, I drafted near the beginning to I was looking forward to seeing how this one played out. 

Before I dive into my picks, you can go here to see the full grid results of every team's picks round by round.

Now, onto the picks:

1. John Donaldson (Round 1.11, overall pick 11): I had him #5 on my board, he fell to #11.  Easy choice.
   
   
2. Max Scherzer (Round 2.02, overall pick 14): Second round and already a pick I agonized over.  I had a few choices: do I take the elite pitcher (#2 on my board behind Kershaw), or take the top bat available and hope there isn't a run on starters where I feel like I might miss out?  I took Scherzer, however looking back, probably could have waited with what fell to the 3rd/4th round.  Still happy with the pick.
   
   
3. Robinson Cano (Round 3.11, overall 35): I had a number of pitchers ahead of him still on the board, but couldn't justify taking another one just after taking Scherzer... or could I?  Most people were waiting on pitching so more bats went early than expected.  Thought about Lorenzo Cain an I have them very closely ranked, but went with Cano.
   
   
4. David Price (Round 4.02, overall 38): I mentioned people were waiting on pitching and there were still elite arms left. I decided to pair Price with Scherzer and give my team probably the best top 2 pitchers out there. Also, there wasn't a bat I loved so it made it a bit easier.
   
   
5. Matt Kemp (Round 5.11, overall 59): This was a tough one.  We start 5 OF and I didn't have one yet.  A mini run happened and I wanted to get the top OF I still had on my board.  Was hoping Braun fell but he went the pick before so I took Kemp.  Risky, yes, but still some upside for power and speed.
   
   
6. Kyle Schwarber (Round 6.02, overall 62): It's funny, a few days ago I posted my catcher rankings and specifically mentioned how I couldn't imagine myself landing Schwarber this year.  I was lower on him than most and he probably wouldn't fall to a place where I felt I was paying proper value.  Well it happened so I took him.
   
   
7. Wade Davis (Round 7.11, overall 83): I'm a fan of getting an elite closer if possible at the right price.  I have a tier of 3 guys I think are elite, and the other 2 went along with someone outside of that tier.  I know if I didn't take him I wouldn't have a chance at him so this was an easy pick for me.
   
   
8. Johnny Cueto (Round 8.02, overall 86): Remember when I said people were waiting on pitching?  This was one of the best values in the early rounds in my opinion.  I'm happy he's back in the NL and should be better than his 2nd half last year.
   
   
9. Kole Calhoun (Round 9.11, overall 107): This pick I didn't love.  It was more about filling my OF slots and I'm not sure I really needed to at the moment.  That said, he's fine and should give decent power production.  Just a meh pick.
   
   
10. David Ortiz (Round 10.02, overall 110): I liked this pick.  He should be much better than 110 overall, but fell because he's only a DH.  Yes I lost flexibility with my utility, but should have very good production in his last year.
    
    
11. Billy Hamilton (Round 11.11, overall 131): I'm usually a Hamilton hater, but looking at the construct of my team at this point I had a serious lack of speed.  So I took the best SB option available.
    
    
12. Hector Rondon (Round 12.02, overall 134): Wanted another closer at this point and he was top on my board with only a couple left in the tier I was looking at.
    
    
13. Josh Reddick (Round 13.11, overall 155): I'm quite high on Reddick this year and compared to my projections/rankings, this is a huge steal. Very happy with this pick for his 20/10 upside.
    
    
14. Jeff Samardzija (Round 14.02, overall 158): I could have went a number of ways here, but I was very strong with my first 3 starters and wanted to continue to back them up.  Looking back, I missed a name on my board that I would have rather had here (Michael Pineda), but they were close in my projected value so I'm ok with it.
    
    
15. Ian Desmond (Round 15.11, overall 179): I'll feel a lot better when he has a team, but regardless, this was far too far down the board for him to fall.  SS is thin and I didn't have one yet so thrilled with Desmond.
    
    
16. Dustin Pedroia (Round 16.02, overall 182): I needed to fill my MI slot and there were only 3-4 options I had left in the tier I was looking at.  After taking Pedroia, those other 3-4 kept falling so this actually ended up being a bad pick, but I'm still fine with it.
    
    
17. Shawn Tolleson (Round 17.11, overall 203): A full time closer with good skills and somewhat established in the job.  Sign me up for my 3rd closer and a further advantage in pitching.
    
    
18. Hisashi Iwakuma (Round 18.02, overall 206): At this point in the draft, pitching was really starting to go.  I knew I had 4 guys that were very solid so I wanted some risk with a lot of upside.  When Iwakuma is right, he's excellent.  I know he's coming in with health risks, but took a chance for the home run with this pick if he pans out.
    
    
19. Alex Gordon (Round 19.11, overall 227): I think this is the steal of any team in the entire draft.  I have him in my top 100 overall and to get him at 227 is crazy.
    
    
20. Daniel Murphy (Round 20.02, overall 230): I was actually thinking about Murphy when I took Pedroia, so it shows how much he fell.  But with 3B eligibility, I took him for my CI slot.
    
    
21. Justin Bour (Round 21.11, overall 251): I didn't write the script to get my 1B in the 21st round, that's for sure.  When I had guys in queue and they were picked just before I wanted them, I simply went in other directions with better value.  I took Bour with some potential for upside, and should be able to hit for some power.
    
    
22. Marco Estrada (Round 22.02, overall 254): Needed to fill one more SP so I took thr best one I had ranked left.  Happy with him also.
    
    
23. A.J. Pierzynski (Round 23.11, overall 275): My second catcher isn't great, but if I can get a good average, I'll be happy with that.

I was happy with this squad for the most part.  I felt likeIi killed it with pitching, both starting and relief.  I also felt like my hitting was better than average especially considering all of the picks I invested into pitching early (4 of my first 8 picks).

Here is how my batting looks with my projections:

Not elite anywhere, but good enough to compete everywhere.  I would have liked to have seen a better projected average, but power was better than anticipated.

For a deeper look at my pitching:

Really couldn't be much happier with my pitching. Pretty dominant starters and happy with the closers I got.  If this squad held up through the season, it should more than make up for my batting.
ERA and WHIP are elite and I would contend for saves, wins and K's if I managed the team effectivly through the year.

After this mock, I looked at the FantasyPros Draft analyzer.  Again, I understand these analyzers don't always provide accurate projections, however if there is any one I would put some trust into, it's FantasyPros.  Their logic using experts consensus rankings and projections is one of the best methods of draft research available in my opinion.  That said, here are the results. 
This is the second mock I completed where they loved my team, so hopefully i'm doing something right.

Thanks again to Howard Bender for hosting this mock draft and thanks to all that participated. 

Most years, first base is a position you can rely on for power and durability.  While I would agree with that statement to an extent for 2016, the position is not quite as deep as it once was.  Don't get me wrong, it is much deeper than other positions like catcher and shortstop this year. However when you compare the first baseman class of 2016 to previous years, there is a bit less depth than we are used to seeing.  Let's get right into the rankings:

1. Paul Goldschmidt (Auction $41): There really isn't much to say, he's the best in class.  Consistent power year to year and an added bonus of 10-15 SB per season. In addition he's been over 0.300 for three consecutive years and there's no reason to think he's not going to continue this pace.
   
   My projections for Goldschmidt: 100 / 31 / 106 / 16 / 0.304
   
   
2. Anthony Rizzo (Auction $35): I wasn't buying Rizzo last season and boy was I wrong.  I expected a bit more of a sophomore slump out of him and he just continued to excel.  To me, he's very similar to Goldschmidt, just with a bit more power upside and average downside.  He's the only other top 1B with 10+ SB upside like Goldy.
   
   My projections for Rizzo: 91 / 34 / 102 / 11 / 0.281
   
   
3. Miguel Cabrera (Auction $34): Last year was one of the worst years we've seen from Miggy in a while.  He only played in 118 games, but he still managed to hit .338 and win the batting title.  If he did play a full season he was on pace for 30+  HR's and 110+ RBI. That said he's entering his 13th season.  I have him projected with a bit of natural regression and he's still the #3 first baseman on my board.  I understand why some might shy away from him for someone younger, but I'm fine taking him near the end of the first round in most drafts.
   
   My projections for Cabrera: 90 / 26 / 96 / 2 / 0.312
   
   
4. Edwin Encarnacion (Auction $30): You basically know what you're getting when you draft Encarnacion: power.  He peaked a bit later in his career than others, but 4 years in a row at 34+ HR's isn't matched by many.  He doesn't run and his average is going to be lower that my top 3, but he's almost a lock for 30+ HR's and 100+ RBI's.  In the Blue Jay's lineup, I think there's even more RBI upside than that. 
   
   My projections for Encarnacion: 88 / 35 / 108 / 2 / 0.273
   
   
5. Jose Abreu (Auction $29): Not that he's the forgotten talent, but I've seen a number of people that don't believe in Abreu's chance for continued success.  In his first 2 MLB seasons, he's average slash line looks like: 84 / 33 / 104 / 2 / 0 / .303.  If you were going to give me that out of my first round pick, I'd be thrilled.  The best part is, this year, you don't need to take him in the first round. I understand the White Sox aren't great, but there are many batters on other teams that continue to thrive in poor lineups. 
   
   My projections for Abreu: 84 / 31 / 94 / 0 / 0.288
   
   
6. Buster Posey (Auction $27): Posey is dual eligible at C and 1B. Check out what I wrote about Posey in my catcher projections here.
   
   My projections for Posey: 75 / 21 / 88 / 0 / 0.313
   
   
7. Chris Davis (Auction $25): Full disclosure, I've never been a Davis supporter.  I've always felt like his 2014 season was closer to the player he really is, but he proved me wrong both in 2013 and 2015.  That said my projections in 2016 are probably a bit higher than I want them to be, but the numbers don't lie. 
   
   My projections for Davis: 86 / 36 / 105 / 2 / 0.258
   
   
8. Joey Votto (Auction $24): Votto had a huge year last year compared to what most thought he would do.  He's one of the best hitters in the game and has one of the best eye's at the plate.  However that doesn't necessarily translate into an amazing fantasy player.  In most standard scoring leagues, walks don't help you, and he walks a LOT.  That simply removes opportunities for AB's and equates to less HR's and RBI's.  He's a very good hitter, just make sure you temper expectations for fantasy relevant numbers.  OBP leagues, he gets a massive boost.
   
   My projections for Votto: 86 / 22 / 84 / 5 / 0.293
   
   
9. Freddie Freeman (Auction $21): Freeman is a very good hitter in a terrible lineup.  Last year people were shying away from him because many were afraid he would be pitched around.  He missed almost 1/4 of the season with a reoccurring wrist injury and still put up better numbers than many projected him for.  If he comes into the season healthy, this year he should be able to produce at a reasonably high level once again. 
   
   My projections for Freeman: 77 / 22 / 82 / 3 / 0.287
   
   
10. Eric Hosmer (Auction $20): Just about every year, I have Hosmer higher on my board than most others. He doesn't have tremendous power or speed.  He's just a very good hitter in a good lineup that contributes across the board.  It accumulates in more value than people expect and I'm happy yo take that as my 1B if I miss out on the top guys.
    
    My projections for Hosmer: 82 / 19 / 84 / 6 / 0.284
    
    
11. Adrian Gonzalez (Auction $18):  Another year older and Gonzo is still a steady-Eddie producer. He will be 34 this year, but still batting in the middle of a good Dodgers lineup. He should be close to the consistent Gonzalez production we're used to.
    
    My projections for Gonzalez: 77 / 24 / 87 / 0 / 0.275
    
    
12. Albert Pujols (Auction $16): Pujols rounds out my top 12 first basemen.  To be honest, I did everything I could to try and keep him out of it, but couldn't find another guy I thought was worthy of bumping up the list.  I'm worried about Pujols coming into this year.  He had foot surgery to alleviate pain from his previous plantar fasciitis injury, but only time will tell what that recovery looks like.  He will likely miss most of spring training and even if the surgery did correct the issue, the 36 year old 1B may not bounce back to his old form.  My projections for Pujols are already conservative and even knowing that I would still probably shy away from him this year.  The floor is a lot lower than the ceiling is high in my opinion.
    
    My projections for Pujols: 72 / 25 / 84 / 1 / 0.268
    
    
13. Brandon Belt (Auction $11): Belt is a player that has been full of upside but hasn't quite ever lived up to expectations.  The last 2 seasons he hasn't played a full season so we don't really know what we might see from him. I think he has 20 + HR and 10+ SB upside, but I can't project him for that quite yet. 
    
    My projections for Belt: 68 / 16 / 65 / 8 / 0.273
    
    
14. Lucas Duda (Auction $9): We saw a great power surge from Duda in 2014 and 2015 and I expect similar production from him in 2016.  He is an average drain however with no speed, so it's tough for me to project him as a top 1B with essentially only 3 positive categories of production.
    
    My projections for Duda: 70 / 27 / 72 / 1 / 0.246
    
    
15. Carlos Santana (Auction $8): I liked Santana a lot more when he qualified at catcher, that's for sure.  Now, he's just an average 1B/DH at best. He also has the same issue Votto has: walks way too much for standard fantasy production.  He would get a huge bump in OBP leagues as well, but otherwise, he's just fine.
    
    My projections for Santana: 73 / 22 / 77 / 5 / 0.243
    
    
16. Mark Trumbo (Auction $6): Trumbo could be a nice source of power later in drafts and has multi-position edibility with OF. If you can absorb the lower average, the other production may be worth it.  I think he has power upside higher than my projections and I wouldn't mind having him.
    
    My projections for Trumbo: 64 / 24 / 72 / 0 / 0.248
    
    
17. Mitch Moreland (Auction $6): Moreland isn't one of those names with a lot of household recognition, but his production is on par with many other middle of the road first baseman.  You might be able to get some good value if he slips in drafts.
    
    My projections for Moreland: 53 / 22 / 74 / 1 / 0.254
    
    
18. Mark Teixeira (Auction $5): I keep waiting for the wheels to fall completely off with Teixeira, and the years keep going by, and he keeps producing.  Even missing 51 games in 2015 he managed to hit 31 HR's.  Now, so many things went right for that to happen for him last year and I expect things to regress a fair amount in 2016.
    
    My projections for Teixeira: 54 / 24 / 72 / 1 / 0.246
    
    
19. Byung-ho Park (Auction $5): I don't know a ton about Park, but what research I did shows him to be a big power bat.  He hit 50+ HR's in his last 2 seasons in the Korean Baseball Organization, but it's difficult to equate that to MLB production.  Our pitching isn't just better, it's different than what he's used to seeing.  I know I'm being conservative in my projections, but it's slightly uncharted territory as well.
    
    My projections for Park: 52 / 20 / 50 / 4 / 0.266
    
    
20. Adam Lind (Auction $3): Another new team for Lind and another year older, but similar projected production.  This guy is usually a later round value.
    
    My projections for Park: 59 / 15 / 62 / 0 / 0.273
    
    
21. Justin Bour (Auction $3): Bour has some upside for a later round pick.  In his first almost-full season last year, Bour showed off his power in the terrible Marlins lineup.  With Stanton back this year, things should be a bit better, but I'm a bit cautious of second year players as pitching begins to adjust to his approach at the plate. 
    
    My projections for Bour: 55 / 21 / 66 / 0 / 0.251
    
    
22. Stephen Vogt (Auction $3): Vogt is dual eligible at C and 1B. Check out what I wrote about Vogt in my catcher projections here.
    
    My projections for Vogt: 54 / 14 / 65 / 0 / 0.268
    
    
23. Ryan Zimmerman (Auction $2): Zimmerman lost his 3B eligibility this year which is a negative for him. He's also missed a significant amount of playing time over the last 2 seasons.  Last year he was battling a similar plantar fasciitis problem as Pujols and it caused him to miss almost 1/2 of the season. All reports are that he should be coming into 2016 healthy and thoughts are that playing 1B should keep him healthy.  I'm still projecting him a bit more on the pessimistic side.
    
    My projections for Zimmerman: 53 / 16 / 60 / 0 / 0.265
    
    
24. Joe Mauer (Auction $2): Mauer is the same guy he has been for a few years now.  Not much power or speed, but a very good contact hitter.  He's reliable and you know what you're getting from him.  Whether you want that or not is a different story.
    
    My projections for Mauer: 64 / 9 / 51 / 1 / .277
    
    
25. Chris Colabello (Auction $2): Colabello was essentially a career minor league before he got his big chance in 2014 with the Twins.  Not often you see a guy get his first chance at age 31.  Colabello has taken advantage of that chance and has been reasonable productive for a low end 1B. He will likely be hitting near the bottom of the Blue jays order but has dual 1B and OF eligibility.
    
    My projections for Colabello: 46 / 16 / 57 / 1 / .267
    
    
26. Yangervis Solarte (Auction $1): 60 / 11 / 58 / 1 / .268
27. Pedro Alvarez (Auction $1): 50 / 21 / 63 / 1 / .244
28. C.J. Cron (Auction $1): 40 / 18 / 55 / 1 / .263
29. Matt Adams (Auction $1): 52 / 16 / 58 / 0 / .260
30. Ben Paulsen (Auction $1): 48 / 14 / 46 / 1 / .273
31. Ryan Howard (Auction $1): 50 / 20 / 72 / 0 / .231
32. Wil Myers (Auction $1): 49 / 11 / 46 / 6 / .261
33. Chris Carter (Auction $1): 53 / 26 / 67 / 0 / .212
34. Luis Valbuena (Auction $1): 58 / 17 / 52 / 1 / .235
35. Yonder Alonso (Auction $1): 46 / 7 / 41 / 5 / .268
36. Mike Napoli (Auction $1): 46 / 16 / 51 / 2 / .240
37. Brandon Moss (Auction $1): 49 / 16 / 52 / 0 / .238
38. Adam LaRoche (Auction $1): 43 / 13 / 50 / 0 / .237

Like I mentioned earlier, this feels like a slightly down year for 1B.  There are still plenty of guys I'd be happy to have at my 1B and CI slots though.  If you are going to wait on a 1B, you'll likely still be able to get decent power, but you may also have to take a low average with it.

Check out my other positional breakdowns:

Catcher: here
First Base: here
Second Base: here
Third Base: here
Shortstop: here
Outfield: here
Designated Hitter here
Starting Pitching: here
Relief Pitching: Coming soon

If you've read my recent article on closers (here), then you've had a sneak peak into my thoughts on Aroldis Chapman.  Chapman has been about as dominant as any pitcher could be over the last 4 seasons.  He's accumulated no less than 33 saves each year and much more impressively has averaged an astounding 15.40 K/9.  He has simply dominated NL batters, so how could I possibly be down on Chapman?

A little perspective, I'm only down on him compared to others projections and his ADP.  Do I think he could still be a dominant closer... yes.  But at the same time, I think there is a good amount of risk and uncertainty that comes with him this season. Here are a number of factors I took into account when I created my projections for Chapman:

• He had a poor finish to the season in 2015 (compared to normal Chapman) which concerned me just a bit.
• He not only changed teams, but went from the NL to the AL, and AL East which has a ton of great bats, besides Tampa Bay.
• There are 2 other elite arms in the bullpen, arguably the best non-closers in baseball in Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances.  Also, Miller already had proven success closing for the Yankees.  If Chapman was to pitch back to back days, Miller would likely snag save opportunities to keep Chapman fresh through the year.
  
• I project the Yankees to only have an average chance for save opportunities.  While Vegas has the Yankees projected as the 4th best team in the AL (I'd take the under), I'm not sure how many of those games are going to be close games for save opportunities.
• Chapman has off the field issues, and while we don't know if he might face any type of discipline, it's just another red flag to consider.
• No one has thrown as many 100+ mph pitches over the last 3 seasons and it's not even close.  Hell, add up every pitchers in baseball for 3 full seasons and Chapman still has more.  That's a tremendous amount of arm strain, and while he's been seemingly fine, it's in the back of my mind as a concern.  Circling back to my first point about Chapman, I didn't like the way he ended 2015 and I wonder if something mechanical had to do with the decline.

Even factoring in all of these concerns, I still have him 8th on my big board of relief pitchers.  That's a huge drop off however compared to everyone else's top 1-3 closer ranking.  If he fell to me at the right spot, I would take him in a draft, but I think that's very unlikely knowing how the rest of the world views him.  There are very likely other closers I'd take in his place.