Earlier today the fantasy baseball world went into a mini frenzy when news broke that Ian Desmond signed a 1-year $8 million deal. While it is nice from a fantasy perspective to know Desmond is finally part of an MLB roster, there were a few things that were surprising about this signing.
This was significantly less money than Desmond was expecting to sign for. He turned down nearly a $16 million offer from the Nationals this off season in the hopes to land a big deal. Agent Scott Boras is widely known for landing his players lucrative deals and this one fell far short of what Desmond was expecting. It was also quite a surprise to find that the Rangers were the team to sign Desmond. Teams like Tampa Bay and Colorado were rumored to be in talks with the free agent shortstop. When it was reported that the Rangers landed Desmond, the question of playing time quickly arose. The Rangers have Andrus, how does Desmond fit into the picture? That question was also answered somewhat quickly: sources reported that Desmond would take over left field responsibilities for the Rangers. How does this affect Desmond's (and others) fantasy production? Desmond is coming off of a terrible year. I'm sure this isn't at all how he wanted to enter his free-agency off season, and I'm certain after today's signing he's second guessing the decision he made a few months ago. That said, he now has a home and it's time to think about what the 2016 season will look like for Desmond. The biggest concern I have is playing time. The Rangers wouldn't have signed Desmond if they didn't think he would help their team, however they still have veteran Josh Hamilton who was expected to play left field as well as young stud Joey Gallo to consider as potential LF options. Hamilton is in the later stages of his career and isn't healthy. We already didn't know what to expect from him due to reoccurring knee issues, but the Desmond signing should significantly cut into his at bats. That said, he will play some and that will in turn cut into Desmond's at bats. To what extent is yet to be seen. Then there's Joey Gallo. Gallo played in 36 games in 2015 and flashed some nice power at times. Talks were that he might break onto the scene in 2016, however today's signing seems to have put a huge damper on that. If the Rangers thought he was ready to take over in left field, I'm reasonably certain they wouldn't have signed Desmond. To me, Gallo was affected most by this deal and isn't even draft-able in most formats anymore. He will get some playing time, however I'm guessing dramatically reduced. So where does that leave Desmond? I haven't changed my projections for him all that much. I figure he will get most of the time in left field, but also will have the potential to play occasionally around the diamond if others need a day off. I reduced my overall AB projections a hair which will in turn lower the counting stats I projected before this deal, but overall the numbers look close to the same. Desmond has been healthy most of his career, and the only reason I would lower his projected AB's furthr is if he touches Beltre's head. My projections for Desmond for 2016 now look like this: AB: 540 Runs: 62 HR: 19 RBI: 70 SB: 14 AVG: 250
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Before I begin this article, I would like to thank the legend himself: Lenny Melnick (@LennyMelnick). We had a very spirited back and forth about this topic and he was kind enough to mention me a couple of times during his podcast a few days ago while discussing his point of view. While we disagree on this topic, I can understand and accept his point of view, even though I'm opposed to it. He has accomplished more in his career than I could ever hope to amass so he's absolutely doing something right. Now, onto the article...
One common reoccurring suggestion I’ve heard from many experts in the fantasy baseball community is “wait on closers” or “don’t pay for closers”. You can always get saves late in drafts, or guys lose their job as the months pass and there are plenty of saves to be claimed off the waiver wire. While all of these statements may be true in some cases, I’m going to give you an argument why you should draft closers often, early, and plenty of them. Depending on the format of your leagues, this strategy may be more or less beneficial, but I have seen this strategy be very successful across a variety of formats. For this discussion I will focus on a very common format: 12 team 5x5 standard roto league. Not that this is the only format where this strategy works, however it is one that most people reading this article should be able to relate to. Now, here's why you should go after the elite closers and relievers: Their actual statistical impact is under-valued. The first thing I recommend: Stop thinking of closers as a 1 category investment. Most people equate closers with saves and it’s simply not the case. Most closers, especially the elite ones contribute in all 5 standard pitching categories. The elite ones contribute in saves, but also in ERA, WHIP and K's more than they receive credit for. Yes, they pitch less innings than a starter would, but in my next example I will show how impactful two or three elite closers can be together. I’m going to take one of my teams from a few years ago as an example. I drafted three closers in the 7th, 9th, and 12th rounds respectively. Their stat line read like this for that season year:
Looking back you could argue that these combined stats were those of a Cy Young candidate; plus an extra 108 saves. Some would also say I was fortunate that all three closers worked out so well for me. Later in this article I'll discuss why this isn't so much luck. Now, I needed to spend 3 mid-round picks for these stats, but let's look at the final roto standings for that season:
Had I completely ignored this team and made no in season moves or roster adjustments, I would have accumulated enough saves to finish with 9 points in that category. I understand that may not seem like a lot, but with in-season moves and waiver wire pickups, this strategy can easily get you close to the top spot. In addition to the saves, let's not forget the 201K's, 9 wins, and amazing ERA and WHIP. It is a bit difficult to quantify the impact of the wins and strikeouts in this example, but I look at them as a bonus to whatever my starters accumulate. When drafting I really don't worry too much about wins because they are so volatile, especially for relievers. Closer should accumulate at least a couple and help you in the final standings. If we turn the focus to the elite ERA and WHIP we can more easily see the impact. In this league as an example, an average team threw 1400 IP. For my team a little over 200 IP came from these 3 closers (close to 15% of my IP). If my starters put up an ERA of 3.60 for the remaining 1200 IP, my closers would have lowered my team's ERA for the year down to 3.45. This may not seem like a lot; however this would have moved the needle for my team 3 standings points in the ERA category. The same goes for WHIP, had my starters posted a WHIP of 1.20 for their 1200 IP, my 3 closers would have lowered it to 1.17 gaining me an additional 4 points. Again, I can't easily quantify with certainty the K's or wins, but for the sake of argument I'm going to say they gained me 2 more points in the standings which I believe is conservative yet realistic. Accumulate these points, and my 3 closers alone single handedly are responsible for 19-20 gained points in my roto league final standings. That is significant value, and almost always completely overlooked. I understand not every league will work our exactly the same way. It has worked out for me in a similar way many times and at times, I've seen the ERA and WHIP points swing even more than in this example. I've mentioned that all leagues have varied rules and are unique. Many leagues institute a Games Started (GS) or an Innings Pitched (IP) limit to prevent players from pitching countless starters each day and dominating the wins and strikeouts categories by streaming. If your league uses a GS limit, closers/relievers don’t factor into that limit and are extremely important. You can use as many as you like, and their stats only add to your team’s categories while not impacting your GS limit. Use this to your advantage. It’s not only closers that have great value and often get under-valued, other relievers that don’t accumulate saves can also provide a positive impact for your team. Here are three setup guys from the same season mentioned in my last example. While they didn’t accumulate many saves, they still could have been a tremendous value for someone’s team:
If a team owned these three players for most of the season, they essentially would have had the equivalent of a Cy Young caliber starter as well. The 300 k’s would be a great boost to your team’s total and an ERA of 1.58 and a WHIP of 1.02 for a combined 242 innings would lower any team’s respective stats. Also, these players were quite available in most leagues. Because they didn’t project to accumulate a lot of wins or saves, these non-closer relievers are often overlooked year to year and can be drafted in the very last rounds or even claimed off of waivers.
Let’s now consider the other league format I mentioned earlier, Innings Pitched limit. Even if your league uses an IP limit, the value of having these elite relievers is significant. With IP limit leagues you need to get the most value of each inning accumulated. You might sacrifice somewhat on your wins total by using these types of players (though not necessarily as relievers do get some random wins), you are going to gain dramatically when it comes to K’s, ERA, and WHIP. Elite relievers generally have elite K/9 rates, as well as low ERA and WHIP, which provide a lot of value in IP limit leagues. In general, fantasy baseball players neglect the most non-closer relievers (especially if your league doesn’t count holds as a category), but after looking at the above numbers, it is very tough to ignore the value. These examples show how a solid collection of closers can impact your team's overall statistics. I'll now move onto my next argument for drafting elite closers: Investing early promotes job security. It's an awful feeling when one of your players goes down to an injury or loses his job. It's especially painful when it's a closer and you have no way to get additional saves. Unless you already have his replacement on your team, you'll likely lose out on a good chunk of saves going forward. While there is a lot of turnover at the closer position, there isn't usually a lot of turnover with the elite closers. I also believe there is a science in predicting which closers are at the highest/lowest risk for keeping and losing their jobs. I wrote a piece here discussing many variables other than skills that impact a closers job security. To summarize that article, by doing research about all 30 projected closers, you're giving yourself the best chance to draft elite closers that will keep their jobs all season. Looking at my previous example, someone may argue that I was very lucky that the three closers I drafted all worked out well for me. There may be some truth to that, however I strongly believe there is significantly less risk for closer busts when you're evaluating and targeting the elite ones properly. There are only 30 closers. When one hits waivers, they can be tough to claim. If for some reason you didn't end up with the closers you wanted during the draft, you still have the ability to pick them up throughout the year. While the elite closers tend to keep their jobs, there will likely be 10-15 closers that change jobs at some point during the season. Some would say this reinforces the argument to punt saves during the draft and just wait to pick them up later. Not so fast... this is not as simple as it sounds for a couple of reasons:
I've covered many reasons why you should focus on getting elite closers. Now, let's consider some of the common counter-points: You pass up too much talent in the middle rounds if you draft closers: Another argument I’ve seen is the investment during the draft for these elite relievers is too great. If I’m using picks in rounds 7-12 to get 3 closers for example, I’m missing out on other, potentially great players. Anyone that has played fantasy baseball for a while should understand that almost any draft pick can be a bust. That said, I feel the elite closer picks bust far less than any other picks. Elite closers have insane skillsets and ratios that are unmatched by other pitchers in the game. If I decided to wait on closers and did a fantastic job drafting in rounds 7-12, maybe it's possible that I would have drafted a better overall team. But the security that the elite closers provide coupled with my confidence to draft well in the later rounds gives me enough assurance in my strategy. History has also proven you can find values later in drafts. If you have prepped well and done research heading into your draft, your picks in the middle to later rounds should be valuable enough to keep your team competitive in all of the hitting categories. Granted I might not be as good as the other teams that punted saves, but I don't need to be. I don't need to win every category, I just need to stay competitive. Getting the elite closers puts me in a position to win saves as well as finish very high in ERA, WHIP, and K's. I'm comfortable taking my chances with my later round picks to stay competitive batting. You don't need to invest in elite closers. You can still draft closers, just later: This is a fair point to an extent, but you lose a too much value in many cases. The elite closers that go off the board early, go early for a number of reasons: elite skills, proven track record, job security, potential for saves, etc. If you're getting 3 closers but they are all in the bottom 1/3 of all ranked closers, there is a big drop-off in skill and job security. This tier of closers I do consider more of a 1 stat contributor and often they can be a detriment to your ERA and WHIP as opposed to a positive. They are also the most likely candidates to lose the job or be part of a time share. Can you catch lightning in a bottle and get one that's an over-performer? Yes, these types of guys break out every year as well, but that's more the anomaly as opposed to the rule. Conclusion: I know that some would argue the points that I’ve made, and there is some evidence showing that you can punt saves and still be very successful in certain formats, but I will respectfully disagree. If you’re in a head to head league then this might not be the article for you, and punting is quite viable to succeed. I've been drafting for 10+ years using this strategy and it has consistently led me to successful seasons. Investing in relievers is something you can do where you may not necessarily see the results in your daily stat card, but trust me, at the end of a season when you’re atop the standings, you’ll thank me. If you've done any research this year, you've probably noticed how top heavy third base it. There are a some very nice early round selections that would be options at 3B, but also some values for the mid-rounds and even later round picks. There looks to be both speed and power options depending on your team's need and I find myself having a lot of flexibility with my 3B choices compared to other positions.
Third base has 4 huge superstars that can go in the first round of your draft. If you don't get one of them, there are still great options in the middle and later rounds. Of all of the positions I will be drafting this year, 3B is one I think I will feel very comfortable no matter who I get. Check out my other positional breakdowns: Catcher: here First Base: here Second Base: here Third Base: here Shortstop: here Outfield: here Designated Hitter here Starting Pitching: here Relief Pitching: Coming soon When thinking about your league's scoring system and more specifically which categories are used, there are a number of options out there. Some fantasy baseball players prefer the standard 5x5 scoring system:
Others prefer to deviate from the "standard" and add/substitute categories. There are many other non-standard categories that can be used, and I could post countless blog entries discussing all of them. Today however, there is one specific category that is commonly used as a non-standard category that I want to dig a bit deeper into and discuss some of it's pro's and con's: Quality Starts (QS).
A quality start is a category that can only apply to a starting pitcher, similar to how a save can only apply to a reliever. A quality start occurs when a pitcher starts a game, pitches at least 6 innings, and allows 3 or less earned runs. For some time now it has been accepted as a metric to determine if a starting pitcher pitched well enough to give his team a reasonable chance to win the game. Now, rather than get into a debate about the metric itself (I would argue that it's a bit too lenient), for the sake of this article, let's assume it's validity. In many leagues I've seen as well as been a part of, Wins are often replaced with Quality Starts as one of the pitching categories. Those who advocate for QS's argue that it is much more indicative of a starters performance compared to a Win. Too often, Wins are out of a pitchers control and even if they pitched very well, do not receive credit for their performance. I absolutely agree, and when comparing Quality Starts to Wins, Quality Starts are much more indicative of a pitchers performance. Even with these positive things to say about QS as a metric, I am still in favor of Wins as a category. I concede that Wins are more random, less of an accurate measure of performance and flawed. For the sake of my next few points, consider a common scenario where someone is debating on replacing Wins with Quality Starts as a category in their league:
Julio Teheran is entering his 4th big league season with the Braves this year. In 2014, just about everything went right for him on his way to a great year, however in 2015 I feel we saw more of the real Teheran. Many people are predicting a bounce back, while I'm projecting Teheran for even more regression.
Here are some numbers to consider. Over the last three seasons, BB%, K/BB ratio and Line Drive% ratio have all trended in the wrong direction for Tehrean. While last year was abysmal compared to 2014, overall his first 3 seasons in the bigs are less than impressive (and that's including a good 2014). He has a career K/9 of 7.70, average at best for a fantasy starter in most formats. His walk rate is heading in the wrong direction and that's very concerning for someone that should be maintaining better control as he heads into the prime years of his career. These things considered, I expect his WHIP to be high again and similar to last year. Even if he improves, he would have to improve dramatically to get it back to his career average of 1.19, and I don't see that happening with his current career arc. Wins are always tough to project, but the Braves should be a bad team this season. Even if Teheran pitches well, run support will likely be an issue and everything would have to break right for him to pull off 13+ wins (which I think is unlikely). The one positive you can say about Teheran is durability. He's put up 185+ IP 3 years in a row. However if the K/9 is going to be under 8 and the WHIP/ERA are going to be worse an average fantasy SP as I project, those innings are going to hurt your team more than help. The stats say that he was a bit lucky in 2014 to have a good of a season as he did. He was probably a but unlucky to have as bad of a year as he did in 2015, but not by much. He would need to do the following to be a good value at his current ADP:
Are these things all possible, sure, however with the trajectory of his skills over the first three seasons, I'm not banking on it. I would take him in a draft at the right price, but my ranking is quite off from his ADP. He's being drafted in most leagues around the 160 mark while I have him sitting outside of my top 300. My advice: stay away from Teheran. Many would say that second base is a thinner position most years. To an extent I would agree, but that doesn't make me reach any sooner than I have to for a second baseman or middle infielder. Unless I'm in an AL/NL only league or super deep league, there is usually someone late I'm content with drafting. This year isn't all that different. There are a few elite guys on the board followed by some decent second tier talent. Let's take a look at my big board at 2B:
Looking a bit deeper at my projections, second base feels a bit deeper this year than in years past. While I'd be happy with any of the top options, I'm be content with a number of the mid to late round picks as well. My middle infield slot will likely be filled by a 2B option, but that says more about the lack of talent at SS. Check out my other positional breakdowns: Catcher: here First Base: here Second Base: here Third Base: here Shortstop: here Outfield: here Designated Hitter here Starting Pitching: here Relief Pitching: Coming soon ![]() By NickB149 (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons Going back a few years now, Josh Reddick has been a bit of an under valued outfielder. Entering his 8th season in the majors, he's really only has a chance to show off his potential a few times. Twice in his career has he posted seasons of 145+ games, but when he has... he has shined. Much of this has been because of opportunity. He simply was the 4th guy in line in Boston, and even platooned a bit while in Oakland. In his first full season in 2012 he exploded with offensive production posting 32 HR's, 85 RBI's, and 11SB's. Granted I don't expect him to return to that level, but I do think he could repeat his modest numbers of last season.
In 2015 is hit .272 while belting 20 HR's and swiping 10 bags. Not elite, but very good for a 4th or 5th OF. If you look at some of the underlying sabermetrics behind these numbers, you can deduce that they are very repeatable. Last year he also posted the lowest K% of his career (11.2%), highest BB/K ratio of his career (0.75), and second highest HR/FB ratio of his career only behind his massive 2012 season. Mash these together and it tells me that he had a much improved eye at the plate last year. While .272 was well above his career mark of .251, I leaning towards him repeating last year's success rather than regressing back to the mean. Reddick turns 29 this month and should have a few more good seasons in his prime. One of the best things about Reddick is his draft day price. Current ADP numbers have him a little over 200th overall. If you're telling me that I can have a potential 20/10 guy at that point in the draft, sign me up now. I think there's more upside to these numbers as well. He should hit 4th in the Oakland lineup and the recent addition on Khris Davis should only help him see better pitches and have added RBI opportunities. Please come join me on the Josh Reddick bandwagon.
I was again fortunate enough to participate in an expert mock draft run by Howard Bender over at RealTime Fantasy Sports. And again, Howard, from Fantasy Alarm and host on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, wasn't the only expert in this draft. Ivar Anderson (@johnwhorfin), writer for FantasyGameday.net and FantasyAlarm.com was also a participant as well as Sean Murphy (@bpsmurph), contribute at Numberfire, Last Word on MLB, & Hardball Scoop. There were also a number of other excellent players making this quite a competitive mock.
Similar to my last mock (check it out here), this one was a 23 round standard 12 team draft (14 hitters / 9 pitchers). This time I landed with the 11th pick overall which was a nice change of pace. In other recent mocks, I drafted near the beginning to I was looking forward to seeing how this one played out. Before I dive into my picks, you can go here to see the full grid results of every team's picks round by round. Now, onto the picks:
I was happy with this squad for the most part. I felt likeIi killed it with pitching, both starting and relief. I also felt like my hitting was better than average especially considering all of the picks I invested into pitching early (4 of my first 8 picks). Here is how my batting looks with my projections:
Not elite anywhere, but good enough to compete everywhere. I would have liked to have seen a better projected average, but power was better than anticipated.
For a deeper look at my pitching:
Really couldn't be much happier with my pitching. Pretty dominant starters and happy with the closers I got. If this squad held up through the season, it should more than make up for my batting.
ERA and WHIP are elite and I would contend for saves, wins and K's if I managed the team effectivly through the year. After this mock, I looked at the FantasyPros Draft analyzer. Again, I understand these analyzers don't always provide accurate projections, however if there is any one I would put some trust into, it's FantasyPros. Their logic using experts consensus rankings and projections is one of the best methods of draft research available in my opinion. That said, here are the results. This is the second mock I completed where they loved my team, so hopefully i'm doing something right. Thanks again to Howard Bender for hosting this mock draft and thanks to all that participated. Most years, first base is a position you can rely on for power and durability. While I would agree with that statement to an extent for 2016, the position is not quite as deep as it once was. Don't get me wrong, it is much deeper than other positions like catcher and shortstop this year. However when you compare the first baseman class of 2016 to previous years, there is a bit less depth than we are used to seeing. Let's get right into the rankings:
Like I mentioned earlier, this feels like a slightly down year for 1B. There are still plenty of guys I'd be happy to have at my 1B and CI slots though. If you are going to wait on a 1B, you'll likely still be able to get decent power, but you may also have to take a low average with it. Check out my other positional breakdowns: Catcher: here First Base: here Second Base: here Third Base: here Shortstop: here Outfield: here Designated Hitter here Starting Pitching: here Relief Pitching: Coming soon If you've read my recent article on closers (here), then you've had a sneak peak into my thoughts on Aroldis Chapman. Chapman has been about as dominant as any pitcher could be over the last 4 seasons. He's accumulated no less than 33 saves each year and much more impressively has averaged an astounding 15.40 K/9. He has simply dominated NL batters, so how could I possibly be down on Chapman?
A little perspective, I'm only down on him compared to others projections and his ADP. Do I think he could still be a dominant closer... yes. But at the same time, I think there is a good amount of risk and uncertainty that comes with him this season. Here are a number of factors I took into account when I created my projections for Chapman:
Even factoring in all of these concerns, I still have him 8th on my big board of relief pitchers. That's a huge drop off however compared to everyone else's top 1-3 closer ranking. If he fell to me at the right spot, I would take him in a draft, but I think that's very unlikely knowing how the rest of the world views him. There are very likely other closers I'd take in his place. |
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