I just completed my first revision of this year's projections and rankings found here.  Some important things of note that were updates:

• I updated the formula for $$ allocation between hitters vs.pitchers.  This is a topic that is very much debated between experts in the industry.  A general consensus is between 65 - 70% of the total $$ should be allocated towards hitters while 30 - 35% should go towards pitching.  For the longest time I used a 67/33 formula but felt that I was putting too much emphasis on pitching.  I have adjusted my formula and it is now 69/31 which in effect slightly raised hitters auction values while lowering pitchers.  The change isn't all that significant when you look at all players as a whole, however I felt the change was necessary.
• Recent player moves are now reflected in the rankings I.E. Jake McGee, Corey Dickerson, Howie Kendrick etc...
• Some players stats updates, mostly minor however I did go through the top tier pitchers with a bit more focus and made some adjustments.  More adjustments will come, but most will continue to be minor unless there is breaking news that is very impactful.
  

As always, please leave a comment if you have any questions.

"Sleeper" is a term that almost all fantasy baseball players are familiar with.  However, the term sleeper has changed from what it once was many years ago.  When I first started playing fantasy baseball roughly a decade ago, sleeper meant the following:

• A later round draft pick, generally a prospect, that most other fantasy players were unaware of.  A hidden gem that you would draft and potentially could provide a tremendous return on investment.

While this is a generalization and others might have a slightly different definition, the overall idea is accepted by most... or at least was.  I would argue this is no longer an applicable definition. The way fantasy baseball enthusiasts play the game and gather our information in today's world is vastly different than a decade ago.  The internet is now essentially the only way the game is played and almost everyone is connected to some sort of social media outlet to get the latest and greatest news on popular prospects.  It's almost impossible not to know who the June call-ups will be and which high-profile prospects will have an impact at the MLB level.

Lets take last year for example: Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Addison Russell and Joc Pederson were essentially household names by opening day without ever having a major league at bat.  There are many more besides these four, however this small sample quickly shows how easy it is to recognize high level young prospects with just a little research now a days. Because they were so well known, it was very tough to get them at a bargain in most drafts last season.  If anything, they were over-hyped and overvalued in many drafts I saw.

I would argue that the following players were much better bargains last year: Brandon Phillips, Kendrys Morales, Alex Rodriguez, and John Lackey.  What do these players have in common?  They are older and boring.  Last year this group all had an ADP over 200, but provided a significantly greater return on investment.  

In today's game, there are many bias's, however one of them that I feel are more prevalent than others. I strongly feel that most fantasy players overvalue young talent.  Everyone wants to get the next Mike Trout or Bryce Harper, but in reality, that happens so rarely it is usually more of a detriment than positive for your team. With the over-valuing of youth come under-valuing of the older player pool.  Everyone expects that players in their mid-late 30's will always be hurt and skills will regress to an unproductive level.  While there usually is a bell curve in a players production through his career, that does not at all mean that they should be undervalued at a certain age.  More-so, they should be valued exactly at what you feel their projected stats would be.  It may be difficult to rank them with a lot of upside, however they shouldn't be undervalued either simply because of age.  I strongly feel that this perception (which is more and more common now a days) is leading to a changing of the guard with the term sleeper. I would re-define it as this:

• A later round draft pick, that can produce a much higher return on investment than the round he was drafted.  Generally a player than other fantasy players are down on, however one that you think has the potential to greatly exceed draft day value.

While this statement indicates nothing about age, it's almost natural for this type of player to be a old and boring.  Those are the types of players that get under-valued, however those are the types I'm happy to target.  At the end of the day, I'm only concerned with statistical production of a player.  When i do my projections, i try to be as objective and realistic with every player and let the chips fall where they may.  I often find if I then compare my ranks to others or ADP data, it's easy to find who I feel this year's sleepers may be.

There are a number of high profile players that now have new homes.  Each move has fantasy implications and here is my analysis of some of the larger signings:

• David Price: Back to the AL East for price. Wherever Price would have landed, he would have had success to some degree.  He could have been an ace for any rotation, and while the AL East is one of the stronger offensive divisions in baseball, Price have a large amount of experience and success against these higher powered rosters.  The Red Sox are the favorite to win the AL (at least Vegas thinks so).  theoretically that should give him a number of opportunities for wins.  While his ERA and WHIP might not lead the league, it's not out of the realm of possibilities to see him with a sub 3.00 ERA and sub 1.10 WHIP.  He's in my top 5 overall SP's heading into this year.
  
  
• Zack Greinke: Greinke is coming off a historic season.  He posted numbers that haven't been seen in decades and frankly will not be reproduced by Greinke.  He will still be very good and staying in the NL West should help.  Natural regression is to be expected after his 2015 campaign, however you can pencil in a great ERA and WHIP.  I would expect the wins to dip going from the Dodgers to the Diamondbacks, but i do think the diamondbacks will be better than last year; just not good enough to win the division.
  
  
• Jason Heyward: For the last 6 years Heyward has been a ton of potential that just hasn't lived up to his hype.  That said, he's been a fine player, just not what the masses have expected from him.  He probably has 20/20 potential for this season, and depending where he falls in the Cubs lineup, could be in line for solid run or RBI production.  I don't think he will ever pan out and provide 1st or 2nd round value, but Heyward could fit in nicely with the Cubs and provide solid #2/#3 OF production for your fantasy team.
  
  
• Justin Upton: One of the more recent major moves, Upton adds yet another right handed bat to the Tigers lineup.  Similar to Heyward, Upton has always had unrealistic expectation set for him, especially after his breakout season in 2011.  Since then, most fantasy owners have been disappointed with his production, even though his production overall has been solid.  The switch from the NL to the AL concerns me a bit, but at least he landed in what should be a higher powered offense.  I expect much of the same from Upton, disappointment compared to expectations, but in actuality, fine OF #2 production.
  
  
• Johnny Cueto: After a very brief stint with the Royals, Cueto heads back to the NL with the Giants.  I'm a bit more scared with Cueto after huge second half regression last season.  Prior to last year, Cueto posted 4 consecutive seasons of sub 3.00 ERA.  While that's extremely consistent and encouraging, his second half woes have me concerned.  He should be pitching for a very good Giants team and even with some pheripheral regression, Cueto should be in line to get Wins. I don't at all think that he will be as bad as his time with the Royals, but his runs allowed will not be as good as in years past.  SP #2 should be possibly, and there may be SP #1 upside, but there is also downside as well.
  
  
• Chris Davis: This was the best possible scenario for Chris Davis.  He gets to retain the comfort of staying with the same team and seeing most of the same pitchers he's accustom to. He gets to work with the same hitting coach and continue to hit HR's out of Camden Yards.  You should still see Elite power coupled with below average AVG from Davis.  I'm usually down on Davis more than most are so my projections may be a bit soft compared to others, however he will be able to compete for the AL HR lead.
  
  
• Yoenis Cespedes: Breaking news in just the last couple of days, Cespedes resigned with the Mets for 3 more years.  I love this move for Cespedes's production and value.  He's jumped from team to team so much recently, stability should be a good thing for him. While the Mets lineup isn't all that potent, there are enough run producers to give him adequate RBI opportunities.  I think the power will regress a bit from last season, but 30 HR's is still possible. 
  

While this topic doesn't necessarily have anything to do with fantasy, as an avid baseball fan I feel obligated to at least touch on the topic a bit.  Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Piazza were inducted and both were deserving in my humble opinion.  Griffey should have received 100% of the vote and I will rant about that in just a bit.

Other that I felt strongly for that should and I think will eventually get in:

• Tim Raines: He was elite at many thing in his era, however has one REALLY big obstacle in his way that will never leave: Rickey Henderson.  That was Raines's peer; and when you are compared to one of the greatest of all time, it can diminish you accomplishments, as great as they may be.  I strongly feel that if Raines has played in a different decade, he would have already been in the hall.  
  
  
• Jeff Bagwell: In an Era with ridiculously juiced numbers all around him, Jeff was consistently producing power and average at a very high level.  There are a number of other articles essentially showing that he was never really the top guy in any season (with the exception of 1994 - the strike shortened season).  He was however consistently putting up elite level runs, hr's, average, RBI's, and OPS.  Again, when he was being compared to Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, and others that were putting up silly numbers, Bagwell's were dwarfed.  He was however an excellent player for a very long time.

There are others that I'm still not sure about.  I think I'm more selective than most and feel the elite of the elite should be the only ones in the hall.  Sure Hoffman compiled 600 saves over a very long career, but Wagner was an infinitely more dominant pitcher looking at their respective peripherals.  I wouldn't throw a tantrum if Hoffman was inducted, I'm just not as much of a fan of compilers getting in.  I'd rather have the uber elite even if it was for a shorter period of time.

It was nice to see Griffey set the record for highest % of the vote for an induction, but it's time for the voters to get off of their high horse.  Seriously, there isn't a valid reason not to vote for him.  It was a class act that everyone loved AND was amazing to watch.  Multiple elite seasons AND compiled gaudy career stats that only a few have ever done before.  So what is the reason not to vote for him: Because if Ruth, Gehrig, Williams, etc... didn't get 100% of the vote, then no one should?  I say who cares.  Just because other mistakes were made in the past doesn't mean we should keep making them.  There are a number of players that should have already received 100% of the vote, and while in the scheme of things it's really not a big deal, it really does rub me the wrong way.  I was very much hoping he got 100% for another reason other than him deserving it: I believe once it happens once, that will set the new precedent.  After that it should happen much more easily for other deserving players.

I would love to see what happens in the next few years when there are even more polarizing players than Griffey.  Who wouldn't vote for Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter (and I'm a Yankee hater saying this)?

I just finished my first iteration of this seasons projections and rankings, and I found myself questioning a few things:

• Is it possible that Clayton Kershaw is the #1 overall player on my board (based on Auction $)
• Is Buster Posey really 2x more valuable than the second best MLB catcher?
• Is Paul Goldschmidt actually projected to produce the same value as Mike Trout?

Based on my first set of of projections and rankings, all of these statements are true.  Frankly, I don't think any of them are that outlandish either.  It's early in the year and spring training hasn't even started.  As more moves are made and player news breaks, I will continue to update these accordingly until opening day is here.

If you have any questions about a specific player(s), feel free to leave a comment and I will get back to you.

While I play fantasy football and enjoy it to an extent, it cannot compare to fantasy baseball. Now that the NFL regular season has come to an end, MLB projections and rankings are in full swing.  I'm targeting to have my first iteration completed by February 1st.  Between now and then however I will post a few articles I have brewing, including:

- Winter Meetings: Big moves and fantasy implications
- Review of the 2016 HOF Class
- The Metamorphosis of the Sleeper

Stay tuned for some new content as we head into spring training.

Also, one shameless plug, my e-book is now available in paperback on amazon and can be found: here.