A Deep Dive into my Rankings

I've now gone through 2 iterations of my 2016 projections and rankings and took a moment to reflect on that I put together.  Rather than just assume everything is now perfect, I'm always look for ways to improve.  I just completed an exercise calculating the relative draft value of each of my top 276 players as compared to the top 276 consensus ranked players on http://www.fantasypros.com/ (a site I highly recommend as mentioned in my book).  Some Initial findings:

• I seem to be putting more emphasis on AVG compared to many experts out there based on the consensus players i have ranked higher than them.  I don't necessarily know if that is a bad thing. I've always felt that AVG is one of the more forgotten roto categories and this seems to reinforce my argument.  I'll reassess and if I feel it's too strongly weighted, I may tweak my formula a bit.
• I seem to also value 5 tool players more than most consensus experts.  Essentially players that aren't great at anything, but possible good at everything seem to be up my board a bit more.  Again, I don't think this is a bad thing.
• I have starting pitching VERY undervalued compared to most everyone. I intentionally changed my formula recently to add slightly more value to batters compared to pitchers and while i thought it would only make a very slight tweak, I believe it may have shifted things a bit too strongly for batters value.  I will likely re-assess and modify slightly, however nothing earth shattering

Now, while these points are things I am now are of after comparing these 2 sets of rankings, there are some players that are glaringly off.  I'm going to talk about some that I seem particularly higher and lower on that most other experts:

Players I'm very high on

• Matt Duffy: (My Rank 62 - Fantasy Pros consensus expert rank: 177). I liked a lot of what Duffy did as a rookie last year.  He now has an entire season under his belt seeing MLB pitching and should be hitting in a good spot in a good lineup.  Duffy has 15/15/.290 potential and while none of that is elite, it all provides value.  Going back to my second point above, he's the type of guy that can be a strong 5 category contributor.  He reminds me of Ben Zobrist of years past.
  
• Alex Gordon: (My Rank 73 - Fantasy Pros consensus expert rank: 178). Gordon just signed a new deal to stay with the Royals for 4 more seasons and I like that for him.  Now, my projections for him are under the assumption that he's going to be healthy opening day and back to full strength.  I understand that is a risk.  However assuming that is true, he is also the type of player that contributes in all categories.  I would argue that he has 20/15/.275 potential, with very high RBI upside in the middle of that Royals lineup.  Similar to Duffy, not flashy and not leading the league in anything, but contribute everywhere that gets under-rated. 
  
• Josh Reddick: (My Rank: 60 - Fantasy Pros consensus expert rank: 152). Reddick has been in the league for a while now but was underwhelming for many of his seasons with Boston.  Since his move to Oakland things have improved and last year was the start of both a power and speed increase.  I don't necessarily think he will bust out into a superstar, however he's the big bat in that lineup.  Still barking up the same tree, I think he will also be a 5 category contributor and have very similar numbers to Gordon.
  

Players I'm not so high on:

• Kyle Schwarber: (My rank 198 - Fantasy Pros consensus expert rank: 55). Schwarber is a name everyone seems to love and be high on.  Is his power upside tremendous? Absolutely.  But (and a big but...) I need to see more of it at the major league level first.  16 HR's in 69 games last year was great, however there are a lot of flaws in his swing as well.  With a K-rate of 28% last year, his contact wasn't great and lead to a AVG of .246.  Now he hits the ball hard and I think this can go up, but I'm not sure how much higher.  Playing time is also a concern.  He's young, unproven, and catching. He's not Buster Posey and no way will be accumulate 140+ games behind the plate.  That concerns me with his counting numbers as well.  I may be wrong, certainly many others disagree with me, but I am much more reserved with my projections for Schwarber
  
• Garrett Richards: (My Rank 257 - Fantasy Pros consensus expert rank: 90).  This one I don't get.  If people think the Richards of 2014 was the real deal, they are mistaken.  He was great, there is no denying that.  On top of that, last year he was a shell of his 2014 performance and greatly disappointed those that drafted him expecting more.  So who is the real Garrett Richards?  Probably somewhere in the middle, however somewhere in the middle as an ace of the Angels doesn't put him a great position to succeed.  He will be paired up with other team's #1 pitchers and that doesn't bode well.  Also, the AL west is shaping up to be a tough division.  His K-rate is probably going to be around 8.0 which is fine, but now elite by any measure. He will be fine and I'd draft him for the production I expect him to give, however no chance at all it's top 100 overall production.
  
• Carlos Correa: (My Rank 40 - Fantasy Pros consensus expert rank: 9). While 9 to 40 isn't nearly as many spots different as my first 2 examples, that many spots different so early in the draft is significant.  I think Correa will be a great SS.  His power upside is there and if he went 30/20 this season I wouldn't be totally shocked, however I think he also has just a big of a floor as he does upside. We've seen less than 100 MLB games out of Correa and while what we've seen has been good so far, I'm not sure yet that he's Mike Trout or Bryce Harper.  Major league pitching will adjust to him and he should go through a bit of growing pains.  That said, a top 40 and the #1 SS on my board (next to Manny Machado who will not qualify at SS in most leagues) is still solid.
  

I expect many to disagree with some of my ranks.  Hell, I'm even making it a point to call myself out on some of my most glaring disparities compared to the masses.  That said, I also feel my logic that went into these decisions is sound.  Could I be wrong, absolutely. However, I'm also not going to change my thought process to be more consistent with others either.  I would be doing a disservice to myself and others. As we lead up to spring training I will continually update my ranks. 

Stay tuned for more player news and advise.