By LiAnna Davis (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0], via Wikimedia Commons
Last night, I completed my final draft before opening day; a home draft that I was less than thrilled about. It wasn't a terrible draft, but looking back there were a number of picks I really wish I made different selections with. Before this turns in a vent session, I'd like to look at all of my drafts as a whole and make some general observations:
Players I have across multiple leagues:
The more leagues a person plays in, the more likely it is they will have the same player multiple times. I've really tried to limit the amount of leagues I play in down to a reasonable number, and I've settled on four that I really want to focus on this year:
Now, across these leagues, I figured I would have some players multiple times. I knew there were some guys that I was higher on than most and they would inevitably end up on my teams. It's almost never intentional, I simply try to draft the most value in each league. I don't try to target or stay away from certain players, I simply draft the best values that fall to me. Looking at all 4 teams as a whole, it's interesting to see who I have the most, and who I don't.
Hisashi Iwakuma: Iwakuma is the only guy I have in all 4 leagues. To be honest, I was surprised when I saw that I had anyone in all 4 leagues. This wasn't intentional, and looking at my projections for him compared to his ADP, I wasn't all that far off. So for him to fall to me everywhere was a very unlikely and pleasant surprise. I had him projected at 128 overall while his ADP was closer to 140. Looking at my drafts I was able to get him at: 160, 157, 168, and 133. All are values compared to where I have him projected.
Now i'd like to take a look at some numbers on Iwakuma for a moment. He's entering his 5th season in the majors, and while he missed time last season, he's been fairly durable through his career. He's healthy coming into 2016 and while the 35 year old isn't exactly entering his prime, he has been absolutely effective his entire time in the majors.
He's very quietly posted a career ERA of only 3.17. This is in the American league and across a 4 year stretch mind you. Only two other AL pitchers have posted better ERA's in that same time frame (Sale and Felix). Arguably more impressive, his career WHIP is 1.08 from 2012 thru 2015. Sale is the only AL pitcher to be better during that time. While his career K/9 is modest compared to some elite pitchers, 7.59 is serviceable when you post absolute elite ERA and WHIP ratios.
Now, like I mentioned, he is 35 and he is coming off of injuries. I understand the risk for regression as well as potential playing time missed. All of that said, he's either my 4th or 5th starter in every league and should things break right, he has the potential to far exceed his draft day value.
Josh Reddick and Santiago Casilla: I have both Reddick and Casilla in 3 our of my 4 leagues respectively. I'm not shocked about Reddick at all. I've pretty much lead the Reddick fan club by myself this year and I wrote all about it here.
Casilla was a bit more unexpected. I wasn't high on him compared to others, however I am high on closers in general. I have him as my #3 closer in each league and I this had to do more with tier's than anything else. I have him at the bottom of my third tier, and while I don't project him to be elite, I do think he should be good and have a reasonable amount of job security. I have roughly 10 other closers ranked lower than him, and they all have many more question marks when it comes to skills and job security.
Players I have in two leagues: This is a long list, and in no particular order: Ben Zobrist, Clay Buchholz, David Price, David Robertson, Gerardo Parra, Jarrod Dyson, Jeff Samardzija, Jorge Soler, Kevin Pillar, Kris Bryant, Lorenzo Cain, Marco Estrada, Marcus Semien, Mark Melancon, Matt Duffy, Michael Wacha, Starling Marte, Zach Britton.
This is way too long of a list to go into specifics on each player; but I i do have some general observations. Most of these guys were players that I ranked much higher in my projections compared to ADP so it was natural that I ended up with multiple shares of them. Others were later round targets that either filled a particular category or position that I was missing. Whatever the reason, looking at this list, these are almost all guys I really like and am glad I have in multiple leagues.
Players I missed out on: Looking at my rankings there were some guys that I was really high on compared to others; and for the most part I have multiple shared of them. There were however some players that I have in one league (or none at all) that I wish i was able to get more of:
I'd say overall i'm happy with the teams I've drafted and landed a good amount of guys that I was targeting. The draft is only the beginning through. Now comes the in season roster management and while a good draft can set things up nicely, staying on top of your roster is equally if not more important.
Good Luck to everyone this season and feel free to ping me here or on Twitter with questions.
@y2trips
Players I have across multiple leagues:
The more leagues a person plays in, the more likely it is they will have the same player multiple times. I've really tried to limit the amount of leagues I play in down to a reasonable number, and I've settled on four that I really want to focus on this year:
- Yahoo Pro League
- 2x NFBC Rotowire Online Championship Leagues
- Home League
Now, across these leagues, I figured I would have some players multiple times. I knew there were some guys that I was higher on than most and they would inevitably end up on my teams. It's almost never intentional, I simply try to draft the most value in each league. I don't try to target or stay away from certain players, I simply draft the best values that fall to me. Looking at all 4 teams as a whole, it's interesting to see who I have the most, and who I don't.
Hisashi Iwakuma: Iwakuma is the only guy I have in all 4 leagues. To be honest, I was surprised when I saw that I had anyone in all 4 leagues. This wasn't intentional, and looking at my projections for him compared to his ADP, I wasn't all that far off. So for him to fall to me everywhere was a very unlikely and pleasant surprise. I had him projected at 128 overall while his ADP was closer to 140. Looking at my drafts I was able to get him at: 160, 157, 168, and 133. All are values compared to where I have him projected.
Now i'd like to take a look at some numbers on Iwakuma for a moment. He's entering his 5th season in the majors, and while he missed time last season, he's been fairly durable through his career. He's healthy coming into 2016 and while the 35 year old isn't exactly entering his prime, he has been absolutely effective his entire time in the majors.
He's very quietly posted a career ERA of only 3.17. This is in the American league and across a 4 year stretch mind you. Only two other AL pitchers have posted better ERA's in that same time frame (Sale and Felix). Arguably more impressive, his career WHIP is 1.08 from 2012 thru 2015. Sale is the only AL pitcher to be better during that time. While his career K/9 is modest compared to some elite pitchers, 7.59 is serviceable when you post absolute elite ERA and WHIP ratios.
Now, like I mentioned, he is 35 and he is coming off of injuries. I understand the risk for regression as well as potential playing time missed. All of that said, he's either my 4th or 5th starter in every league and should things break right, he has the potential to far exceed his draft day value.
Josh Reddick and Santiago Casilla: I have both Reddick and Casilla in 3 our of my 4 leagues respectively. I'm not shocked about Reddick at all. I've pretty much lead the Reddick fan club by myself this year and I wrote all about it here.
Casilla was a bit more unexpected. I wasn't high on him compared to others, however I am high on closers in general. I have him as my #3 closer in each league and I this had to do more with tier's than anything else. I have him at the bottom of my third tier, and while I don't project him to be elite, I do think he should be good and have a reasonable amount of job security. I have roughly 10 other closers ranked lower than him, and they all have many more question marks when it comes to skills and job security.
Players I have in two leagues: This is a long list, and in no particular order: Ben Zobrist, Clay Buchholz, David Price, David Robertson, Gerardo Parra, Jarrod Dyson, Jeff Samardzija, Jorge Soler, Kevin Pillar, Kris Bryant, Lorenzo Cain, Marco Estrada, Marcus Semien, Mark Melancon, Matt Duffy, Michael Wacha, Starling Marte, Zach Britton.
This is way too long of a list to go into specifics on each player; but I i do have some general observations. Most of these guys were players that I ranked much higher in my projections compared to ADP so it was natural that I ended up with multiple shares of them. Others were later round targets that either filled a particular category or position that I was missing. Whatever the reason, looking at this list, these are almost all guys I really like and am glad I have in multiple leagues.
Players I missed out on: Looking at my rankings there were some guys that I was really high on compared to others; and for the most part I have multiple shared of them. There were however some players that I have in one league (or none at all) that I wish i was able to get more of:
- Alex Gordon: I feel he can have a very similar year to Reddick and wish I was able to have gotten him more. I found that I could have gotten him and Reddick around the same time, but was taking Reddick. By the time my next pick came around, Gordon was usually gone. He should have a great year as a 3rd or 4th OF.
- Josh Harrison: I liked Harrison a lot for his positional flexibility as well as his ability to contribute across all 5 categories. He was generally a late round investment but for whatever reason, I wasn't able to get him.
- Madison Bumgarner: This is more of a product of where I was drafting. He was generally going near the beginning of the third round and I only had that draft slot in one league. I got him there, and in other leagues this just wasn't possible. I have mad-bum as my #3 projected ace behind only Kershaw and Scherzer this year. He should be a stud.
- Yasiel Puig: I get he has a lot of risk tied to him, but I think his upside is through the roof. He's a guy that was generally going in the 5th - 7th round range but he's one of the few guys that I think can break out and return 1st - 3rd round value. I have him in one league and will likely target him in trades if possible.
I'd say overall i'm happy with the teams I've drafted and landed a good amount of guys that I was targeting. The draft is only the beginning through. Now comes the in season roster management and while a good draft can set things up nicely, staying on top of your roster is equally if not more important.
Good Luck to everyone this season and feel free to ping me here or on Twitter with questions.
@y2trips
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