2016 Positional Breakdown - Starting Pitchers

By SD Dirk on Flickr [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

After completing all of my projections and rankings, starting pitching feels a bit different for me this season.  In years past, I usually felt like there would be pitchers later in the draft I'd be happy to get to fill out my staff.  This year however, it seems to me that there is a huge drop off after the first few tiers.  More than ever, I want to ensure I have 2 - 3 very good if not elite SP's.

In my Projections and Rankings here, I have over 120 starters ranked. I'm only going to focus on a subset that I feel strongly about compared to the masses and provide additional context to my argument.

1. Clayton Kershaw (Auction $43)
2. Max Scherzer (Auction $32)
3. Madison Bumgarner (Auction $30): Most people don't have mad-bum as their #3 starting pitcher.  I have him here for a few reasons: consistency, durability, and effectiveness.  He consistently puts up elite ERA, WHIP and strikeout numbers as he pitches for a good team in the NL.  I get the argument that a couple of others may have more upside, but I would rather have mad-bum and his very high floor as my ace.
4. Chris Sale (Auction $29)
5. David Price (Auction $27)
6. Zack Greinke (Auction $26)
7. Jake Arrieta (Auction $26)
   
   This ends my first tier of starting pitchers.  Technically Kershaw is in a tier of his own, but I think that's somewhat of a given.  I'm not saying I have to have a pitcher from this tier, but if for some reason I don't get one of them, I'm most likely trying to get two SP's from the next tier.
   
   
8. Jacob DeGrom (Auction $25)
9. Stephen Strasburg (Auction $25)
10. Dallas Keuchel (Auction $25): I have Keuchel in my top 10 while most others do not.  I feel strongly that he will come close to repeating the same level of success he had last year.  Check out my detailed analysis why: here
11. Matt Harvey (Auction $24)
12. Jose Fernandez (Auction $23)
13. Corey Kluber (Auction $23)
    
    This ends tier two and it's smaller than expected.  When I started to project numbers and calculate auction values these 6 just happened to be in their own grouping.  It would almost be a must for me to get 1 if not 2 of these guys if I missed out on someone in the top tier.
    
    
14. Gerrit Cole (Auction $19)
15. Johnny Cueto (Auction $19)
16. Sonny Gray (Auction $17)
17. Carlos Carrasco (Auction $17)
18. Chris Archer (Auction $17)
    
    Another smaller tier, but a group of SP's that I would want on my staff.  I would be content having one of these 5 guys as my #2 behind one of the above mentioned aces.
    
    
19. Adam Wainwright (Auction $15)
20. Noah Syndergaard (Auction $15)
21. Felix Hernandez (Auction $15)
22. Jon Lester (Auction $14)
23. Danny Salazar (Auction $14)
24. Michael Wacha (Auction $14)
25. Tyson Ross (Auction $11)
    
    After this group of starters, I feel there is the largest drop-off in talent to the next tier. This is a decent list of names and in a perfect draft I'd like to have one of them as my #3.  If I went heavy with hitting and had one of these guys as a #2, I'd want to make sure I got some of the next best available guys out there quickly.
    
    
26. Hisashi Iwakuma (Auction $9)
27. Masahiro Tanaka (Auction $9)
28. Francisco Liriano (Auction $9)
29. Michael Pineda (Auction $8)
30. Marcus Stroman (Auction $8)
31. Lance McCullers (Auction $8)
32. Cole Hamels (Auction $7): I'm down on Hamels this year and most can tell by this projection.  I have a detailed write up about it here.
33. Carlos Martinez (Auction $7)
34. Yu Darvish (Auction $7)
35. Jordan Zimmermann (Auction $7)
36. Jeff Samardzija (Auction $7)
37. Scott Kazmir (Auction $7)
38. Jaime Garcia (Auction $7)
39. Wei-Yin Chen (Auction $7)
40. Drew Smyly (Auction $6)
41. Garrett Richards (Auction $6) Richards is another starter that I'm very down on compared to the majority.  If he has to be the Angels ace, I think they are in trouble.  He flashed some nice promise in 2014, but took a huge step back in 2015.  Could the real Richards be somewhere in the middle?  Sure. But most projections I've seen have him returning to his 2014 form and I don't see that happening.
42. Collin McHugh (Auction $6)
43. Jose Quintana (Auction $6)
44. Steven Matz (Auction $6)
    
    This was a large cluster of names for sure. There are a lot of question marks as well as upside starters. There are also a few that I'm very down on compared to the majority.  Some in this group would be targets of mine as a 4th pitcher. 
    
    
45. Marco Estrada (Auction $5)
46. Raisel Iglesias (Auction $5)
47. Jake Odorizzi (Auction $5)
48. Jason Hammel (Auction $5)
49. Yordano Ventura (Auction $4)
50. Shelby Miller (Auction $4)
51. James Shields (Auction $4)
52. John Lackey (Auction $3)
53. Clay Buchholz (Auction $3)
54. Taijuan Walker (Auction $3): I’ll have no shares of Walker in 2016.  I'm projecting him for much of the same that we've seen from him already.  Not great control but had good K/9 upside.  Everyone else will take him in a draft before I would.
55. Patrick Corbin (Auction $3)
56. Kyle Hendricks (Auction $3)
57. Justin Verlander (Auction $3)
58. Aaron Nola (Auction $3)
59. Mike Fiers (Auction $2)
60. Jerad Eickhoff (Auction $2)
61. Kenta Maeda (Auction $2)
62. Rich Hill (Auction $2): Hill is someone that most people won't come close to having this high on their big board.  I liked what I saw out of him at the end of last season with the Sox.  While he's a bit long in the tooth, he showed potential for very good K/9 and is now in a very good park. 
63. Matt Shoemaker (Auction $2)
64. Joe Ross (Auction $2)
65. Hyun-Jin Ryu (Auction $2)
66. Chris Heston (Auction $2)

This rounds out my last tier before we hit replacement level starting pitchers. There are a lot of strategies to employ when choosing starters and a lot of names to select from.  Getting a good balance across categories is ideal, but I will suggest targeting starters a bit earlier this year compared to years past.  The game has shifted to a pitching heavy league and those stats translate to fantasy.  To win your pitching categories, ratios are lower than ever and in turn, aces are that much more important to your fantasy team.

Check out my other positional breakdowns:

Catcher: here
First Base: here
Second Base: here
Third Base: here
Shortstop: here
Outfield: here
Designated Hitter here
Starting Pitching: here
Relief Pitching: here